Expectations that the US government closure could last up to three weeks are growing stronger in the market.
Investor Kalshi, trading on the forecasting platform, has placed himself in the closures of the past 21 days. Based on this scenario, the platform has forecasts of over $2.5 million.
Goldman Sachs economists assess the 85% chance that the shutdown that began on October 1 will last at least 10 days. Economists say momentum to reopen the government could increase around the deadline for military payday on October 15th. Economic data that will be delayed due to the closure is expected to be released after that date.
The White House warned that failure to reach an agreement would “consequences for serious suffering.” It noted that hundreds of thousands of federal employees were full and that they were not receiving their pay on time. He also said that while options to reduce tariffs are being discussed, no official decision has been made yet.
The US government closure appears to have benefited Bitcoin the most. Since the closure began on October 1st, BTC prices have risen by around 10%.
*This is not investment advice.
