The bullish movement in Bitcoin (BTC) and gold in recent weeks has been positive for investors. But there are questions about whether these moves are simply part of the speculative nature of both assets, or whether there are broader economic clouds looming behind all this.
Last month, Bitcoin rose 14% from $110,000 to an all-time high of $126,900, reaching an all-time high earlier this week, but has since corrected. Gold, on the other hand, rose 12.5% over the same period, rising from an average of $3,400 an ounce to its current $4,000. This is an unprecedented price for this metal asset in its history.
The improved performance of both assets over the past 30 days is best seen in the TradingView graph below.
This increase was driven by similar macroeconomic forces. These include growing financial instability, expectations for further U.S. interest rate cuts, and increased demand for safe havens. Opposed to the weakening of the US dollar.
In the case of gold, inflation concerns, high levels of US public debt, and geopolitical tensions have led investors to seek safety in tangible assets. causing its prices to rise to record levels.
In the case of Bitcoin, increased institutional flows (such as exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries), a story of protection against currency depreciation, and abundant liquidity They also acted as catalysts to trigger new price peaks.
Now, analysts warn that the rise in gold itself is more than a speculative matter. actually, Everything points to difficult times approaching It is characterized by rising inflation and deteriorating financial conditions, which, as always, will ultimately affect the pockets of residents.
Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank, is among those who believe rising precious metal prices are “sending a signal” that economy-wide inflation is “already underway.” Central banks claim to be buying gold This is to avoid facing an immediate crisis.
Analyst Bob Chasin thinks similarly, and in modern times: Gold is functioning the same way it did in the 1970swhen the metal reached a record due to a series of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that caused the valuation of ancient assets.
Just as then, “we are now experiencing a geopolitical crisis, a weak dollar, and stubborn inflation,” Cieszyn said. “And all of that is pushing gold to all-time highs, adjusted for inflation,” he points out.
Gold rose from about $108 (1976) to $850 (January 1980). It has increased about 8 times. Compare this to the current bull market (to around $1,650) that began in late 2022 with post-pandemic panic. Currently, the price of gold is $4,000, but it has traded as high as $3,770, which is an increase of 142%.
Bob Chasin, financial analyst.
Daniel Arraez, a Venezuelan economist who specializes in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, agrees with that vision. When interacting with CriptoNoticias, please keep the following in mind: Various war scenarios are currently underway around the world.the Middle East, Ukraine, the Caribbean, and other geopolitical fears will increase.
Added to this is the weakness of the US dollar, which has fallen 10% since the beginning of this year. Dollar index (DXY) of the US dollar against a basket of six currencies including the euro, renminbi, and yen. In January 2025, it was 109 points, and now it is 99 points.As seen in this graph,
In Mr. Arraez’s view, the above has been The US has ‘printed an incredible amount of money’causing a loss in the purchasing power of that currency.
The latter is reflected in the U.S. money supply, which currently stands at about $22.2 trillion, $1 trillion more than a year ago, as seen in the chart below.
In Arraez’s opinion, this increase in the U.S. money supply suggests that “the purchasing power of the dollar is diluting.” “What you could buy for a dollar 20 years ago, you definitely can’t buy today,” he added.
This is not the first time there have been warnings of an impending crisis in the United States and globally. Financial analyst Henrik Seberg said in June that the global economy is like the Titanic, and that Already hit the iceberg And its galleries are flooded. As you can see, “we are clearly in the final stages of the economic cycle,” so a global recession is very close.
bitcoin, digital gold
In this order of thought, and in the face of impending crisis, the story of Bitcoin is born as digital gold, similar to precious metals. It can serve as a durable and long-lasting shelter.
Chasin believes that BTC is driven by “the same macroeconomic forces,” but Gold may be the easiest escape route for central banks“This isn’t the 1970s.”
This theory is opposed by Swissbloc chief economist Seberg. Although he supports BTC, he does not believe that it is a true haven of value due to the asset’s inherent volatility. In fact, he believes BTC could fall by up to 95% after hitting the upper limit in the current bull cycle. That would seriously damage the finances of those who invested in it.
Arraez argues that: Bitcoin can store value in times of crisisHowever, “it is used only for the purpose for which it was created: as a substitute for money, guarded by third parties, authorities, and rulers.”
The economist said that despite significant corrections in the past, Bitcoin “remains a very good asset, functioning perfectly as a store of value, and time has only reaffirmed that.”
The above highlights the idea that Bitcoin and gold are “riding together” rather than competing for maximum reserve assets. According to market analysis firm Ecoinometrics, unlike a few years ago, Demand for “hard assets” is currently increasing. And I don’t prioritize any of them.
“If we are entering a broader hard asset bull market, then Bitcoin is not only displacing gold, but also participating in a structural expansion. And that opens up new bullish possibilities for BTC’s long-term valuation,” the research firm’s analysts say.
Arraez supports that vision. please explain it Gold remains a store of value for investors“But they still don’t understand how far Bitcoin is capable.”
“Personally, I think BTC is a better deposit and store of value than gold, and what we do with this is a matter of wait and see,” he concluded.
