Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength after recovering from the $103,575 level, showing a steady recovery in recent trading. The cryptocurrency has regained its major moving average and is currently testing the 200-EMA area near $115,900. This marks an important turning point where bulls aim to confirm a medium-term trend reversal.
Momentum gains as key levels tighten
BTC price rose above the 20, 50, and 100 EMA clusters and consolidated just below the 200 EMA zone. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $114,924 could act as short-term resistance and a breakout could push the price towards $117,600 and $121,400. While sustaining above $113,000 will maintain the bullish structure, a loss of $114,000 could lead to corrective pressure towards $111,400 and $109,300.
BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
The technical tone of the market remains constructive as closing prices consistently above the $115,000 range could signal renewed institutional interest. If this move holds, the next leg could move higher towards $126,000, completing the recovery from the September drawdown.
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Open interest and market positioning
Bitcoin futures open interest reached $74.21 billion, its highest level since early 2024. The consistent rise in open interest suggests leveraged activity and increased trader confidence. Additionally, this growth reflects financial institutions re-entering the derivatives market with more participants seeking higher volatility.
However, increases in open interest often precede sharp movements in either direction, especially during liquidation cascades. As a result, derivatives markets remain balanced between optimism and risk, indicating a cautious but strong bullish trend towards the end of the year.
Currency outflows signal long-term confidence
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin has recorded steady net outflows from exchanges, indicating less selling pressure among long-term holders. The latest data on October 27th reveals a net outflow of just $47.71 million, with BTC trading at around $115,604. This trend suggests growing confidence as investors continue to move assets away from exchanges and into cold storage.
Alert due to delayed repayment of Mt.Gox
In another development, Mt Gox’s trustees extended repayments to creditors until October 2026, citing procedural delays. This is the third postponement since 2023. Although the postponement limits short-term supply risks, it will prolong uncertainty for creditors hoping to receive long-awaited payments.
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Technical outlook for Bitcoin price
Key levels remain clearly defined as Bitcoin consolidates around $115,000 after a sharp rebound from $103,575.
- Top level: $117,600 (0.618 Fib) and $121,400 (0.786 Fib) serve as immediate resistance zones. A break above $121,400 could pave the way to $126,000 and complete a full retracement of the previous downtrend.
- Lower price level: $114,200 (50-EMA support) and $111,400 (200-EMA confluence) form important support clusters. A loss of these levels could cause Bitcoin to fall further to around $109,300 or $106,000.
- Upper limit of resistance: The 200-EMA at $115,900 remains a key technical barrier to regaining medium-term bullish momentum.
The chart structure suggests that Bitcoin is stabilizing within a recovery channel, gradually gaining momentum after an extended correction. A decisive break above $117,600 would confirm continued bullishness towards $121,000-126,000, while failure to maintain above $114,000 could lead to another consolidation.
Can Bitcoin sustain the $115,000 zone?
Bitcoin’s near-term outlook will depend on whether buyers can hold onto the $114,000-$115,000 support cluster long enough to facilitate a move above $117,600. Increased open interest, stable currency outflows, and institutional investor accumulation suggest growing confidence, but increased leverage could increase volatility.
If the buying momentum holds, BTC could target $121,400 and eventually retest $126,000 by the end of the year. However, a break below $111,900 would weaken our bullish conviction and risk a retrace towards $109,000.
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