Over the years, the halving phenomenon has been established as a fundamental predictive model used by investors to understand how Bitcoin (BTC) supply and demand works during different cycles.
As explained in Criptopedia, the education section of CriptoNoticias, the most recent event where the reward for mining Bitcoin was halved occurred in 2024. Historically, the half-life is There is a noticeable cycle of bull and bear markets that repeats every four years. Bitcoin.
This means that after three years of strong gains, the fourth year (2026) will be a bear market phase. However, with the recent large influx of institutional capital and regulatory changes, The validity of the pattern over the past four years is beginning to erode.indicating a new movement in the Bitcoin price.
A market perspective that is more aligned with public market quarterly incentives and less dependent on halving calendars get a position.
Bitcoin Institutional Capital Redefines Market Pace
but, The idea that the Bitcoin cycle is over is becoming increasingly established. At least that’s what Guillermo Fernandez, a Venezuelan cryptocurrency investor, businessman, and consultant believes.
“The influx of capital into Bitcoin from Wall Street and institutional capital suggests that this market is susceptible to other public market actions and incentives. Bitcoin’s large-scale financial strategy has a huge incentive to take profits and rebalance its ‘cost base’ (average acquisition price) near the end of the year, and we will start to see a less defined four-year cycle, closer to the fourth quarter,” he told CriptoNoticias.
Daniel Arees, an economist who specializes in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, explains: Bullish and bearish alternations do not necessarily depend on these cycles.
“If demand increases and supply stabilizes, then of course prices will go up. “If demand decreases and supply stabilizes, prices will go down and there will be fewer buyers,” he told CriptoNoticias.
Araez added that cutting it in half will help you lose weight.
These cycles will become less and less important because even though the amount of Bitcoin being produced is being cut in half, there will not be enough Bitcoin to significantly change the cost of production. The difference in supply reduction is no longer that large. So I think this stability is showing up on this side. Flattening the curve and stabilizing prices.
Daniel Arraez, an economist specializing in Bitcoin.
Institutions and regulations change the game and the cycle
Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, believes Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle could change significantly.
These changes are unrelated to the halving and are due to increased institutional interest and regulatory changes in the United States. Up until now, the main driving force behind the four-year cycle has been.
Hogan attributes some of this change to favorable U.S. regulation through the creation of a national reserve for digital assets, the creation of a Digital Asset Advisory Board, and regulations such as the Genius Act.
Moreover, the pivot Washington is taking will pave the way for traditional institutions to enter the world of digital assets, this time on a large scale.
The advent of ETFs and currency-based government bonds would have buried the BTC cycle as we know it, these experts agree.
Voices defending Bitcoin’s normal behavior
In contrast, some argue that BTC still maintains its normal dynamics.
Henrik Seberg, chief economist at market analysis firm Swissbloc, warns: Digital currencies are not safe havens as many believe, but rather high-risk assets The correlation with the stock market, especially the Nasdaq, could result in a catastrophic decline.
Meanwhile, analyst and SwissBlock contributor Willy Wu argues that Bitcoin is in the final stages of a bull market. “There’s still a long way to go” to new mountain climbing, However, these highs are expected to be followed by a significant decline.. “We expect a Bitcoin bear market to occur once global macroeconomic markets reverse.”
This is because many investors view Bitcoin as a “risk” asset, preferring a stable macroeconomic environment and seeking refuge in financial products such as U.S. Treasuries in times of turmoil.
Towards a super cycle of Bitcoin adoption
Manuel Terrones Godoy, an Argentinian dedicated to spreading the word about what is happening in the Bitcoin and crypto ecosystem, believes that a “super bullish cycle” for Bitcoin is about to begin.
Godoy claims that With huge investments from Bitcoin ETFs, most of what happens next is positive.. “The arrival of Bitcoin ETFs on the market is just a result of what we have been seeing for some time. You know why I call it a supercycle? Because before there was a roadblock, today there is no roadblock, there is none. And Bitcoin didn’t have a massive adoption cycle, it had a gradual adoption cycle, and it was actually very slow.
The current debate focuses on the traditional halving rhythm and the ability of institutional demand to overcome global macroeconomic influences. The 4-year model seems to have lost its predictive supremacy, but Bitcoin price is at a crossroads. Seeking a new balance between programmed scarcity and traditional financial market forces.
It appears that the future of digital currencies will not be determined solely by the halving of Bitcoin, but by the decisions and capital of major financial institutions.
