Bitcoin continues to consolidate just above the $100,000 mark after experiencing a sharp rejection from the $116,000 resistance. Although volatility has declined, the structure is showing signs of potential weakness. Buyers have not yet shown strong signs of re-entering and the market remains cautious due to the recent flash in open interest.
technical analysis
Written by Shayan
daily chart
On the daily time frame, BTC has fallen below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages located near $110,000, indicating a bearish shift in short-term momentum. The price is currently hovering around the important $100,000 level, which served as support during the recent correction.
The RSI is also hovering around 36, indicating that the market is approaching oversold territory, but not there yet. If buyers fail to defend this zone, there is a risk of further decline, with the next major support set at around $95,000. Overall, the daily structure looks heavy and a recovery above the $108,000 to $110,000 zone is required to turn the outlook back in a bullish direction.
4 hour chart
On the 4-hour time frame, the market recently broke down the rising wedge pattern and retested it as resistance before continuing lower. Momentum remains weak and attempts to bounce back from the $100,000 zone have failed so far.
The price remains slightly above the $100,000-$101,000 support block, but the structure remains weak. Losing this level could result in a rapid decline towards the next demand area around $95,000. The 4-hour RSI is also near 41, indicating that while it is not aggressively oversold, there is room for further decline.
sentiment analysis
Open interest
Open interest has taken a big hit recently, dropping from more than $45 billion to less than $33 billion in the past few weeks. This wipeout reflects widespread deleveraging, likely caused by aggressive long position liquidations. While such resets often clear bubbles, the fact that OI has not recovered yet suggests that traders are still risk-off.
No new leverage coming into the market means participants are waiting for clearer price trends before re-entering. This sentiment is consistent with the volatile price movement, indicating that the market is still tense despite the technical support zone being held at the moment.
