2025 will be the year Bitcoin (BTC) hits new highs, so it will fall, but some analysts warn that the market’s apparent strength is only superficial.
In it, David Battaglia argues that digital assets have experienced a “secret bear market,” with volatility shifting from Bitcoin’s price to the corporate actors behind it.
According to his assessment, “Bitcoin has experienced unprecedented movement over the last year, with wild swings.”
Despite the year’s record price of $126,000, Battaglia believes: Digital currencies are not in a true bullish phaseBut it is in a long process of integration.
« Bitcoin has arrived bear market “By the end of 2025,” he claims. For him, the explanation is straightforward. “The high volatility and extreme declines of the past have been transferred to corporate and financial instruments that protect them.”
The analyst illustrated his theory by pointing to the performance of companies exposed to digital assets.
“Proof of this is Strategy, which has corrected 59%, and Metaplanet, which has fallen 83% from its highs,” he said, citing two of the most representative companies in the Bitcoin treasury sector, which have seen an explosive increase in market share since adopting the currency, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
In his opinion, the above indicates that Downward pressure in the cycle has not disappearedHowever, it has been moved. “The residual volatility of the bear market is transferred to the corporate ecosystem and miners rather than the underlying assets,” he said, adding that Bitcoin “has become a more stable store of value.”
signs of maturity
Battaglia interprets this phenomenon as a sign of market maturity. For him, the fact that Bitcoin has maintained a stable price structure despite the sharp decline in related assets is This is a sign of an evolution towards more predictable behavior.
Along these lines, he argued that “Treasury is a new high-quality altcoin that will start to rise above BTC as we return to the world.” bull market«.
The technical chart shared by Battaglia shows: Prices remain within the medium-term upward channelseparated by two yellow trend lines.
Over the past 376 days, Bitcoin has fluctuated between an average support zone near $90,000 and a ceiling near $115,000, confirming the sideways range described by Battaglia. The blue stripe on the chart represents a long-term decline in this level.
For analysts, this range is not a sign of weakness, but rather part of a “quiet accumulation” process. Therefore, he concluded that “Bitcoin will probably emerge from consolidation towards the $150,000 region to continue this slow process of stable value appreciation.”
