Ethereum continues to test the strength of its broad support area as price action trades near the lower end of its recent range. The asset is hovering around $3,190, indicating limited confidence from buyers who have experienced repeated failures to regain the mid-price range. In addition to struggling to recover key resistance levels, market signals point to slowing momentum.
Funding rates continue to decline, leverage exposure continues to decline, and spot ETF flows remain significantly negative. As a result, traders face a sideways market as they wait for a stronger catalyst. The broader trend reflects hesitancy rather than confidence, with short-term explosions in demand failing to change direction.
Price pressures remain near critical levels
ETH is trading below the 9-EMA and 20-SMA on the 4-hour chart, confirming sustained downward pressure. Rejection near $3,420 to $3,500 continues to limit any upside attempts. This zone coincides with an important Fibonacci barrier that has been acting as a ceiling throughout November. The first signs of strength will appear above $3,250.
However, to demonstrate meaningful recovery, the purchaser must recover $3,500. Importantly, liquidity weakens around $3,004, increasing the risk of further lows below $3,100. The market still respects this floor, but losing the floor shifts control to the sellers.
ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
Additionally, ETH remains compressed near the lower end of the Bollinger Band, indicating reduced volatility as traders wait for direction. This compression is often done before sharp movements. Therefore, the next break above the current range could create short-term sentiment. For now, the $3,100 to $3,200 pocket remains a battleground as buyers try to slow the decline.
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Derivatives are reducing leverage
Open interest has continued to decline after peaking at over $55 billion during the summer rally. The latest reading is nearly $37.4 billion, indicating traders are reducing their exposure. This trend is consistent with a cooling in funding rates and reflects a broader shift in caution.
Additionally, speculative appetite has waned as prices have failed to recover from key resistance zones. Momentum remains slow until open interest expands again. Therefore, the derivatives market favors a cautious view rather than an immediate breakout.
ETF flows highlight continued caution among investors
The Ethereum Spot ETF has continued to record consistent outflows from October to November. Several sessions saw heavy redemptions as investors reduced their exposure amid a broader market decline.
On November 17th, outflows eased slightly as the ETF recorded modest inflows of $11.6 million at around $3,201. However, the overall trend remains negative. Furthermore, the lack of sustained inflows highlights the decline in confidence as ETH struggles to stabilize.
Technical outlook for Ethereum price
Ethereum trades within a compressed structure on the 4-hour and daily charts, so key levels remain well-defined. Upside levels are located at $3,250, $3,420, and $3,500, forming an immediate resistance cluster that is consistently capping price gains. A breakout above this zone could extend to $3,677 and $3,885, with $4,093 acting as the upper limit of the current retracement.
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Downside levels include the moving average zone of $3,158 and $3,169, followed by broad support between $3,100 and $3,200. The final major level is at $3,004, which marks the lower bound of the current structure. This zone remains important as a clean breakdown would expose reduced liquidity and weaken any near-term bullish attempts.
The $3,500 resistance ceiling continues to serve as a key level to reverse medium-term upward momentum. The chart shows ETH trading within a narrow range as volatility compresses near the bottom of the Bollinger Bands.
This setup mirrors an earlier period with an extended compression phase followed by a sharp movement. Therefore, traders continue to monitor whether the contraction structure resolves to the upside or to the downside.
Will Ethereum rise further?
Ethereum’s price outlook depends on whether the bulls can defend the $3,100-$3,200 region long enough to challenge $3,250 and $3,420. A strong recovery from these levels would indicate improving momentum and increase the likelihood of a revisit to $3,677 and $3,885. Furthermore, new capital inflows and increased open interest will support a stronger trend.
However, if the $3,100-$3,200 range cannot be maintained, there is a risk of heading towards $3,004. A breakdown below this support zone will shift attention to deeper levels and weaken the broader structure.
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For now, ETH is in a pivotal space. Price compression, cautious derivatives data, and persistent ETF outflows highlight that the market is waiting for confirmation. Once the price breaks out of the midrange congestion, the next decisive move could emerge.
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