mNAV has been seen as a popular shorthand for valuing Bitcoin government bonds, but a growing number of analysts are warning that this is an oversimplification.
Rise in mNAV in Bitcoin Finance
Over the past few years, public companies have emerged whose main value proposition is to have Bitcoin on their balance sheets. These “Bitcoin vaults,” which include companies like Strategy (MSTR), formerly known as MicroStrategy, have sparked controversy among investors, especially when the stock trades at levels disconnected from the value of the BTC it holds.
The most common valuation metric is the multiple of net asset value (mNAV). It compares a company’s enterprise value (EV) to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings, giving investors a way to assess how much of a premium or discount the market will assign to their company’s financials.
mNAV ≈ Corporate value ÷ Bitcoin holding value
This indicator is now widely adopted. Strategy publishes its own mNAV on its investor site, but third-party dashboards such as BitcoinTreasuries.net track various mNAV numbers across multiple companies.
How mNAV works
Basic mNAV calculations include:
- Estimate the market value of a company’s BTC stack using current prices.
- Calculating enterprise value: Market capitalization + debt – cash equivalents.
- Divide the EV by your BTC holdings to get the multiple.
This EV-based approach is just one way to calculate mNAV. The ratios can change significantly depending on how analysts treat debt, cash, and potential equity dilution. As such, the industry is currently tracking multiple fluctuations.
A reading above 1.0 suggests a premium, and a reading below 1.0 suggests a discount. Depending on the investor’s outlook, this could potentially be a red flag or an opportunity.
Although Strategy reports enterprise value-based mNAV on its investor site, third-party data providers publish multiple versions of the metric, each reflecting different assumptions regarding capital structure and number of shares.
How to read mNAV: premium, parity, discount
Calculating mNAV tells you how the market values a company’s Bitcoin exposure.
- mNAV > 1:
The stock is trading at a premium to the value of Bitcoin. Investors may be assigning additional value to access to capital markets, potential for future BTC accumulation, or operating businesses. - mNAV ≈ 1:
The company is trading at a price close to the value of its BTC holdings. This suggests that it is valued like a direct proxy for Bitcoin, with little addition or subtraction by other factors. - mNAV < 1:
The stock is trading at a discount to its BTC holdings, indicating that investors are not willing to pay the full amount for the coins on its balance sheet. While this could raise concerns about execution and capital structure, some value investors see this as a buying opportunity.
Because mNAV is a dimensionless ratio, it allows comparisons between companies regardless of their financial size or number of shares. It also reflects broader market sentiment regarding whether investors have confidence in the company’s overall strategy.
Understanding variants: basic mNAV, diluted mNAV, EV mNAV
Some dashboards, such as BitcoinTreasuries.net, now display multiple mNAV variants.
- mNAV basic
It is a simple ratio using current market cap and BTC holdings, with no adjustment for future stock dilution. - diluted mNAV
Adjust convertible bonds and other financial instruments by increasing the number of shares. This gives us a more conservative view of what shareholders ‘really’ own. - mNAV EV
We use enterprise value instead of market capitalization to incorporate debt and other liabilities. This version is particularly useful when a company, such as Strategy, issues long-term convertible debt and has significant debt.
As of November 30th, Strategy reported the following values:
- mNAV basic: 0.856
- Diluted mNAV: 0.954
- mNAV EV: 1.105
This means that while equity investors could potentially pay just under $1 for every dollar of BTC on a diluted basis, the broader market, including bondholders, is still worth more than the company’s BTC holdings.
why is it important
mNAV has a significant impact on capital market activity. Companies trading above 1.0 can raise equity or debt on favorable terms and buy more Bitcoin, effectively increasing their exposure. As mNAV declines, that strategy becomes difficult or more diluted.
Through its feedback loop, mNAV influences how companies approach fundraising and how investors assess the viability of Bitcoin-first business models.
NYDIG critique
In a June 2025 blog post, NYDIG Global Research Director Greg Cipolaro harshly criticized commonly used mNAV. He argued that the metric was “woefully inadequate” because it failed to reflect assumptions about key balance sheet risks, particularly convertible debt.
Cipolaro said many analysts treat these convertible bonds as if they are guaranteed to convert into equity. However, if market triggers are not met, the bonds may have to be repaid in cash, creating refinancing risks that mNAV does not capture.
Cipolaro also warned that mNAV often ignores the value of operating companies (opcos), which can lead to hidden risks and upside. Instead of abolishing the metric, he proposed revamping it to incorporate more robust modeling of capital structure and opco valuation.
The road ahead
Although mNAV remains the most cited metric when comparing Bitcoin government bonds, critiques like Cipolaro’s suggest that mNAV may need an upgrade. Investors are increasingly demanding greater transparency and standardization, especially as more companies adopt Bitcoin-forward financial strategies.
As the number and complexity of Bitcoin vaults increases, the question is no longer just “What is the multiple?” But what’s actually in it?
