Bitcoin is approaching one of the most important resistance zones in the cycle, and popular crypto analyst Trader Main says the next few days will determine whether the bulls regain momentum or whether the rally stalls and stalls to higher territory.
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- Whether Bitcoin can clear the confluence zone between $98,000 and $100,000 will determine whether the market takes the final leg higher toward the end of the year or reverts to a broader downtrend.
- “This remains an important area for me,” says trader Mayne.
- A clean break above the $98,000 to $100,000 band could reverse the odds and trigger the last big rally of the cycle.
Bitcoin has rallied to its opening level for the year after forming a cycle low of $80,000, which Trader Main described as “some great trading opportunities.” Although the move broke an “aggressive downtrend,” analysts stressed that the real test was still to come. This means that the daily downtrend line intersects the previous price floor around $98,000.
This zone coincides with a series of low-highs that define Bitcoin’s macro downtrend. A clearing of this would mark the first meaningful change in the high timeframe structure since the all-time high near $125,000.
So far, Bitcoin has shown what Mayne calls “relatively constructive” price action, with lows forming and a break in the four-hour bullish structure underway. However, the market has yet to record any higher highs on the H4 chart. “There has to be follow-through,” he said. “We need a higher high here.”
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Will the highs fall further before the next bear market?
Main reiterated that he still assigns a 70% to 80% chance that Bitcoin will form a lower high rather than a new all-time high. However, if the bulls regain $98,000 and break the downtrend, that probability “drops to 50-60%.” He said this level confirms the weekly cycle low and that he believes it will be the last bull market in the four-year cycle before a bear market in 2026.
He added that pro-cyclical factors include changes in sentiment such as the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening, renewed liquidity expectations and Vanguard’s ability to buy IBIT.
Source: CoinGecko
The ideal scenario for bulls is a clean breakout. “I want to see prices just go down. I don’t want to give people time to go up.” Unstable consolidation near the year’s opening price is more like a “bear flag,” increasing the possibility that the downside is already in the highs.
Mr. Mayne outlined two important trendline guides. A breakout of the downtrend line is a bullish continuation signal, while a breakout of the uptrend line indicates that the structure is “cooking.”
Despite his near-term optimism, Mayne emphasized caution. His personal strategy is to sell and solidify spot positions, ideally near or above $100,000, before a larger cyclical decline that could revisit $50,000 to $60,000.
“If there is any bearish sign at the annual open, 98K, 100K, 105-110K, we are ready to de-risk, hedge and **out,” he said.
If Bitcoin fails to break out further, he expects an opportunity on the short side. “A bear market is just the opposite of a bull market…it just flips the chart.”
The dollar dynamics are aligned for now.
Main said macro signals are supportive, noting that USD dominance is receding and the USD index rejects key resistance levels. “We’re hoping this goes down another notch. This is the best case for stocks, cryptocurrencies, everything.”
Bitcoin remains at its most important resistance level since the rally. A decisive push from $98,000 to $100,000 could change market structure, sentiment, and cyclical dynamics all at once. Failure there may confirm that the top is already in.
“The bulls still have work to do. The bears are still in control,” Mayne said.
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