Bitcoin hit an all-time high in the $120,000-$125,000 zone in early October 2025, and has since slipped to the mid-$80,000 range, but on the daily chart it is near $87,700, and this setup looks like an easy excuse to start the new year with a profit.
That’s where the historical questions begin. Across the monthly return heat map, the average increase in January was +9.76%, with a median increase of +9.54%. February was also positive on average at +14.3%, but March’s median was negative at -2.19%, indicating that the strength at the beginning of the year is present but uneven.
Yes, January is not always green for BTC. It was -32.1% in 2015, -28.1% in 2018, and -16.9% in 2022, so the caveat is not that January is always exciting, but that January often punishes sellers who were expecting an easy exit.
Year-end compositions add context. The average for November is +36.6%, while the median for December is -2.68%. This means that many year-end withdrawals will be hit by noise.
Why not?
The case for “not selling until January” is more about positioning than superstition. Year-end selling is often done for practical reasons, and once that supply is complete, resistance can ease and prices can rebound quickly.
In recent years, the January records were +39.9% in 2023 and +29.6% in 2020. Even 2025 started with a +9.54% January before latecomers spoiled the party.
None of these guarantee an increase. However, if BTC has already fallen from its 2025 peak and entered January below the psychological $90,000 line, history shows that the greater risk may be a sell-off too late rather than too early.
