Ark Invest analyst David Puel said that in Bitcoin’s (BTC) next phase, the deciding factor will no longer be whether investors “believe” in the asset, but rather how much exposure they want to have and which investment vehicles they use to achieve that exposure.
According to Puel, with the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 and the rapid adoption of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has passed an important threshold in institutionalization and entered a more mature stage.
Puel noted that ETFs and corporate bonds currently account for about 12% of Bitcoin supply, significantly higher than market expectations. He said this structural demand was a key determinant of price movements throughout 2025, and argued that this trend could continue into 2026. The assessment was that the market had entered a more institutionalized and relatively less volatile phase as institutional investors were accumulating Bitcoin faster than expected.
Ark Invest remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term valuation framework. According to the model published by the agency, the predicted Bitcoin price in 2030 is approximately $300,000 in a bearish scenario, $710,000 in a base scenario, and $1.5 million in a bullish scenario. Puel said it remains plausible for Bitcoin to reach $300,000 to $1.5 million by 2030 due to the “digital gold” trend and increased institutional adoption.
Puel also said that lower volatility and smaller pullbacks could make Bitcoin an increasingly attractive asset class for investors with low risk appetite in the next cycle.
*This is not investment advice.
