Bitcoin price broke through resistance near $94,000 last week, surprising the crypto community. This begs the question of whether this is just a bear market rally or if the bull market is back on track. Here’s what CryptoQuant, which previously declared a bear market, has to say about the recent rise in Bitcoin prices:
BTC still in bear market despite improving situation: CryptoQuant
On Friday, January 16th, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant revealed in its latest report that the demand situation for Bitcoin is becoming less negative following its recent rally above $97,000. This on-chain observation came weeks after the company announced that BTC’s apparent demand (at the time) was indicative of the beginning of a bear market.
Confirmation of the bear market came after Bitcoin price fell below its 365-day moving average, a level that has historically determined bull and bear phases. However, this all-time high cryptocurrency has been on an upward trajectory since falling below this level, gaining about 21% since late November 2025.
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant noted in a research report that although BTX price is approaching the 365-day moving average, it has not yet recovered the technical level currently located at around $101,000. Additionally, the mentioned analysis firm acts as a “regime boundary” during bear markets, causing price rejection before falling again, as seen in past cycles.
In addition to technical hurdles, CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin demand conditions have improved “marginally” but still suggest market weakness. “While US spot indicators such as Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, US ETFs only temporarily suspended net selling after offloading approximately 54,000 BTC in November and did not show sustained accumulation,” the company added.
CryptoQuant also highlighted that on-chain spot demand continues to decline, with apparent demand decreasing by approximately 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have generally remained below levels that are often correlated with a sustained bullish recovery in the market.
At the same time, increased inflows to BTC exchanges do not spread optimism, but rather increase downside risk. Transfers to centralized exchanges rose to a seven-day average of around 39,000 BTC, the highest level since late November, according to CryptoQuant data. The company says this is a clear sign of increasing sell-side pressure after the bailout rebound.
This shows that although market conditions have improved somewhat in favor of the price, Bitcoin still appears to be in a bear cycle that started less than two months ago.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $95,200 with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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