Gold hit an all-time high of $5,100 an ounce (USD) on Monday, reigniting the debate over Bitcoin’s (BTC) role in the current macroeconomic cycle. For some analysts, the precious metal serves as an early sign of what could happen next with digital currencies.
Investor George Tung, best known as CryptosRus on social networks, emphasizes: Large currency fluctuations have repeating patterns. “First it was gold, then it was Bitcoin,” he summed up. As he explains, “History shows a clear pattern during currency fluctuations: capital moves first into gold, then rotates into Bitcoin.”
As the following chart shows, analysts have shown that gold typically leads these cycles, reaching all-time highs as central bank purchases and global risks increase. “Bitcoin itself is lagging compared to gold, a situation we saw before BTC’s massive breakout,” he noted.
From Gold Signals to Rotation to Bitcoin
The point of this pattern is Appears when the momentum of gold begins to solidify. “As gold consolidates and supply decreases, capital will look for further upside potential and the next destination will be Bitcoin,” Tung said.
As seen below, it has fallen from a long-term uptrend, so it is too early for investors to rotate from gold to BTC. He said the BTC/gold ratio is a “once-in-a-generation outlier” and a “true black swan.”
In his opinion, Possible scenarios lead to similar results: “Bitcoin will either rise until it returns to balance with gold, or capital will move back from gold to BTC. The path is different, but the result is the same. Bitcoin has huge upside potential.”
A unified vision was expressed by Michael Tanguma, founder of Onramp, a Bitcoin storage services company. “The world is realizing the death of the dollar. Gold’s rise is the first sign, and Bitcoin is the final destination.” He added: “The infrastructure for that new world is now being quietly built.”
Technology risks and market vigilance
Nevertheless, This view is not unanimous.. Earlier this month, former Jefferies and former CLSA Wall Street strategist Chris Wood removed Bitcoin from his long-term asset allocation model portfolio, citing the risks associated with quantum computing. This decision reflects prudence in the face of the challenges faced by networks as advances in this technology have made it possible to decrypt private keys.
“Until we resolve this threat, upside potential is limited,” said Charles Edwards, co-founder of Capriol Investments. “So what if we make 2026 the year that fixes Bitcoin?” he asked, referring to the need to advance technological solutions to this risk.
From a more short-term focused perspective, Carolina Gama of BitGet exchange sees a cautious scenario. This, he told CriptoNoticias, “is ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, which is expected to keep interest rates on hold.”
Investors have been focused less on the decision itself and more on Chairman Jerome Powell’s tone, particularly regarding the pace of the economic slowdown and the continuation of a still-restrictive monetary policy that continues to limit appetite for investment in risk assets.
Carolina Gama, country manager of Biguto and Argentina;
Crypto asset market Operates in a flattening phase with a bearish biasBitcoin is trading between $87,000 and $88,000. At these levels, it is 30% off the all-time high of USD 126,000 hit in October.
“While gold is hitting record highs due to financial instability and trade tensions, Bitcoin is finding it difficult to establish itself as ‘digital gold’ during this cycle,” he said.
Spot ETFs have shown mixed flows, indicating that institutional investors remain in wait-and-see mode, favoring U.S. Treasuries as the dollar and non-gold opportunity costs remain elevated. This scenario leaves crypto markets in a volatile state of liquidity, which is likely to remain so until there are clear signs of slowing inflation or future monetary easing.
Carolina Gama, country manager of Biguto and Argentina;
Key skill levels to maintain
BTC is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the momentum of the move, sitting at nearly 42 points. This “suggests there is still room for further correction before a more consistent technical rebound,” Biggett management says.
For Gama, “the most likely scenario is a consolidation between $85,000 and $90,000.” Although he warned that such areas would clearly be lost, Door could open to US$80,000 psychological support test.
So while gold continues to attract haven flows, the market remains cautious for now, with Bitcoin still caught between long-term expectations, technical debates, and macroeconomic developments.
