Due to the downturn in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, price increases are currently impossible. However, this could end up being a strong move and not necessarily a move down.
As on-chain analytics company Glassnode stated on February 11th, bitcoin price “Continue defense” Ranges from $60,000 to $72,000 (USD). This is about 40% below the all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025.
He said this was due to “reactions in spot volumes and cooling in futures”. These factors “indicate that demand is shallow and prices are reactive rather than expanding.”
In terms of system, Glassnode stipulates that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) account for the majority of exits.
However, it is worth noting that the supply held by corporate treasuries and governments has remained largely unchanged, as shown in the graph below, according to the analysis firm Bitcoin Treasuries.
Spot volume increased as Bitcoin fell to $60,000, with the seven-day average hitting its highest since October. However, it did not last after rebounding to $70,000. In Glassnode’s case, this indicates that “absorption remains shallow relative to the magnitude of the selling pressure.”
On the other hand, the performance of short-term BTC holders who have held BTC for less than 150 days remains in negative territory. The company says this indicates “weak recent buyer belief” and limits any sustained bullish follow-up.
Large supply groups purchased Bitcoin between $82,000 and $97,000 and between $100,000 and $117,000, thus incurring losses. In this sense, Glassnode warns: These levels can become resistance In the rising phase.
Additionally, implied volatility and option bias reflect sustained downside hedging demand. Perpetual futures have compressed open interest and premiums, indicating lower leverage.
Serious correction and reversal uncertainties
Overall, Glassnode represents a “period of equilibrium under pressure” with low liquidity and defensive positioning. He concluded: “For conditions to improve, markets are likely to require both new spot absorption and changes in risk appetite. Until then, we expect volatility to continue to be driven by short-term positioning dynamics rather than broad-based expansion.”
In his opinion, an unusual catalyst is needed for a significant regime change in the short term. This could be “a decisive recovery of the market average to around $79,200, indicating new structural strength.” Or, if that fails, a systemic dislocation similar to LUNA or FTX is required. Pushing BTC below the realized price of $55,000. Glassnode analysts believe that such a decline could lead to a resurgence of buying activity.
A bullish cycle pit or a crypto winter?
However, there are developments that offer optimism amid market weakness. “Bitcoin hits a 15-month low, but derivatives are not poised for crypto winter,” Bybit noted on February 10th.
As a result of our analysis, the cryptocurrency exchange admits that: Risk appetite has sharply deteriorated. Now, note that almost $500 billion has been removed from the market cap since the end of January.
Furthermore, with the decline in BTC since October, open interest in perpetual futures has also decreased from $5 billion to $3.6 billion. This move resulted in the highest level of settlement since October 10, 2025.
Adding to this negative environment, Bitcoin is trading below the average purchase price of spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders. This one costs $83,900. Nothing like this has happened since Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2024.
But for this bleeding combination, Bybit emphasizes that: Positioning in derivatives does not reflect extreme scenarios. The firm sees similarities to the mid-cycle correction in 2021, when Bitcoin fell 40% before hitting new highs a few months later.
Currency analysts explain that the volume of spot futures and perpetual futures is nothing like the winter season for cryptocurrencies. In fact, it’s lower than what we saw in October. And the volatility in the Bitcoin options market has not exceeded the norms of the bull cycle that prevailed from 2023 to 2025, at around 50% over a 30-day period. Instead, the 2022 bear cycle saw it rise above 100% in stress events, as shown below.
On the other hand, the relationship between an option’s implied volatility and realized volatility is less than 1. This indicates that expectations are moderate, unlike in the same year when it was above 1.3.
Historical patterns tested
For Bybit, this situation resembles 2021 more than a structural collapse. Such a scenario There is a growing possibility that the market is not experiencing a virtual currency winter. And eventually it will recover to its all-time high.
In November 2021, Bitcoin reached $69,000, surpassing the record set in April ($65,000) after a mid-year decline. It then entered a bearish cycle until early 2023, after which it turned upward.
However, it should be noted that if the 2021 move is repeated, the historical pattern Bitcoin has had around the halving will be broken. The year after an event like the halving of Bitcoin issuance, the currency always reaches the end of a bullish cycle. The latest version was in 2024, so if the classic momentum holds, 2026 will be a bearish year.
Of course, beyond such predictions, you should know that like any other asset, the price of BTC is affected by supply and demand. Therefore, although psychologically it tends to influence market sentiment, there is no guarantee that past events will be repeated.
In this sense, Bitcoin could rise further if there is a catalyst that activates purchasing power. Otherwise, the consolidation or bearish pressure will continue until a clearer signal emerges.
