Bitcoin prices remain under intense pressure well into 2026, with a bear market wiping out profits for several classes of investors. According to the latest on-chain data, this trend could have wide-ranging ramifications for the leading cryptocurrencies in this bear market, especially as it affects a significant group of the largest BTC investors.
Whale losses could put further pressure on prices
In a Feb. 13 post on social media platform Market experts say the unrealized gains for this group of investors are about to be erased by the current market correction.
Specifically, this on-chain is based on the “Big Whales” Net Unrealized Gain and Loss (NUPL) metric, which represents addresses with more than 1,000 BTC. For context, NUPL is an investor’s unrealized profit or loss ratio. A high (and often positive) ratio indicates that unrealized gains are predominant, while a negative value indicates that they are not.
According to the highlighted CryptoQuant data, the NUPL value of the largest Bitcoin whale is currently around 0.2. As shown in the graph below, this NUPL level (near the yellow area) historically coincides with a fairly advanced stage of a bear market, meaning that whales in this group are nearing zero unrealized gains.
Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X
Although this has not yet become a reality, it is worth mentioning that these BTC whales have historically always had mostly unrealized losses at the bottom of bear markets. So what matters is what happens to their holdings between now and the end of the current adjustment phase.
According to Dirkforst, whale holdings under so much pressure could mean the market capitulates, pushing Bitcoin prices even lower. Signs of this trend have already been seen in recent days, especially among new species of whales.
These short-term Bitcoin whales are now realizing large losses quickly. Between February 3 and 7, this new group of whales caused more than $3 billion in losses. Essentially, a sustained capitulation by this group of investors could be a new source of selling pressure on the BTC price.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $68,710, reflecting an increase of over 5% in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency has fallen nearly 3% over the past week, according to data from CoinGecko.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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