Bitcoin’s bear market surprised some in the crypto crowd, as several investors expected the price to recover during various stages of a correction. However, some sections of the market used on-chain data as the basis for predictions and recognized this correction phase.
One such group is on-chain data analysts who argued for the emergence of a bear market based on an apparent decline in demand. Using this same model, a prominent market researcher proposed a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s price recovery.
Bitcoin ETF opens 2026 with $1.8 billion outflow
In a recent post on social media platform X, pseudonymous analyst Dirkforst said: shared Spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange traded funds) could play a major role in turning around the cryptocurrency market. Demand for cryptocurrencies through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has remained weak so far in 2026, according to market data.
This cautious attitude of investors and “reduced liquidity” have had a major impact on the market, with prices continuing to set new lows every other week. Dirkforst emphasized that early 2026 looks like a period of de-risking on the part of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which is primarily driven by large capital inflows and strong speculative momentum.
Dirkforst wrote on XPost:
Market participants appear to be reassessing their risk exposures amid a more uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
Unsurprisingly, recent on-chain data confirms growing investor apathy towards the Bitcoin ETF market. According to data highlighted by Darkhost, 2026 will begin with net outflows of around $1.8 billion, which is in stark contrast to the very positive levels seen in 2024 and early 2025.
Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X
This period was characterized by sustained capital inflows and a significant expansion of market liquidity. However, it is worth mentioning that 2025 ended on a more negative note, with ETF inflows dropping from $27 billion to about $20 billion by the end of the year.
Therefore, this trend indicates that the current demand downturn looks like a gradual decline rather than a sudden decline. Either way, this weak demand leaves the Bitcoin market unprotected and more vulnerable to selling pressure and short-term volatility.
Dirkforst concluded that continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could be a “significant catalyst” to restore stronger market structure and investor confidence. However, there are no encouraging signs so far, with the US-based BTC exchange-traded fund recording net outflows of about $360 million over the past week.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $70,600, reflecting an increase of almost 2% over the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC crosses $70,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured images from Shutterstock, charts from TradingView
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