After a week where the price rebounded slightly, Bitcoin is currently at an inflection point. The analysis showed that views are divided about the immediate future.
The major cryptocurrencies have slightly overcame the decline that brought them down to the $60,000 level, but volatility has been high, trading around $69,000 at the close of this edition. remain constant.
such a situation creating uncertainty among investorsand that leads to polarized attitudes that affect prices.
Analysts’ opinions change greatly. Most focus on the topic of volatility to talk about the near future. Others, on the other hand, are focused on the long-term Bitcoin cycle.
There is an analysis focused on cycles
Among those focusing on cycles is Julian Timmer, global head of Fidelity. bullish attitude. “A drop to just $60,000 would be a relatively mild winter for Bitcoin,” he argues.
Timmer thinks so 60,000 is the support zone. “As Bitcoin matures, its ups and downs should become less intense. No one knows if $60,000 is the floor, but I think it is,” he wrote in X.
Analysts say this number could be the lowest amount BTC reaches in this cycle, which began after the last halving that occurred in April 2024. new spikes.
Based on the mathematical harmonization of past cycles, which of course does not guarantee future cycles, I believe that future waves could lead us to new highs.
Julian Timmer Global de Fidelity Director .
This focus on cycles is championed by businessman and investor Anthony Pompliano. they are normal,y they shouldn’t be scared Because they always expect increases and new historic highs. In his opinion, the important thing is that BTC “will always grow in the long term.”
“High volatility creates opportunities for investors. “Who cares if it goes down in the short term?” he said in an interview within the framework of the event. bitcoin investor weekheld this week in New York.
Other analysts emphasize volatility
More cautious analysis warns of “structural vulnerabilities” weighing down prices. Glassnode notes that Bitcoin prices are “on the defensive.”
They emphasize that Vulnerability of Recent Buyer Beliefs. We also highlight the performance of perpetual futures with compressed open interest and premiums.
There are traders who are paying a premium to hold long positions in Bitcoin futures, especially CME (favored in the US). Many traders outside the US are reducing their positions, especially on the platform, but offshore Like Delibit.
This trend indicates growing demand for leveraged long exposure among US investors (indicating confidence). On the other hand, the market offshore give signs weaken.
“The increase in the spread between CME and Deribit bases serves as a real-time indicator of geographic risk demand,” explained Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG. point out contradiction in action of investors.
Comparison between those who sell and those who continue
Most analyzes reveal the existence of investors more likely to sell. Some of them are buyers spot (cash) and new investors.
However, the data also shows disparate behavior among a significant portion of ETF investors. As reported by Criptonoticias, institutional investors and investors operating through traditional brokerage accounts; Acts as a “strong hand” that absorbs volatilitywithout succumbing to the panic that buyers may have. spot.
In this way, institutional investors A more strategic approach. Some whales took advantage of the decline and accumulated Bitcoin at lower prices. Some retail investors are adopting a “wait-and-see” strategy, waiting for clearer signals before making important decisions.
Nevertheless, according to general estimates on the Bybit exchange, risk appetite is decreasing. As a result, they see investors looking to reduce their exposure to digital currencies and seek refuge in other assets.
In this way, short-term caution prevails in the face of uncertainty and contradictory predictions. This week’s slight rise sparked a frenzy, but BTC price low compared to all-time highs.
Amid these disagreements, analysts agree on the following points: volatility Will continue to be the key to the market. Investors must be prepared to face both opportunities and risks.
