The new warning comes as Bitcoin (BTC) remains trading below $70,000 (USD), about 45% below its all-time high set in October. Among these concerns is the development of quantum computing, a technology that is estimated to be able to crack wallet private keys in the future unless networks become resilient.
Market analyst Willy Wu issued the following series of messages on February 16 this year: Related to recent Bitcoin weakness With the emergence of quantum risks. In this regard, he emphasized that in this scenario, the 12-year upward trend that digital currencies had with gold has broken down.
“Bitcoin should be valued much higher than gold,” he said. “The valuation trend has broken since quantum came along,” he added. “If you want to stay euphoric rather than see things as they really are, don’t read this post.”
Depending on your vision, The market may already be downplaying the risk. If quantum technology can crack old private keys, millions of currently inaccessible Bitcoins will be returned to circulation.
However, it should be noted that the relationship between gold and Bitcoin has had several bullish moments in its history, which have since reversed. There are even longer periods (about half a year) than the current one, as seen in the following graph. So, only time will tell whether this time will be different and things will not turn out better due to concerns about quantum risks.
Risk of Bitcoin Loss
Wu said active BTC will likely be “patched with quantum-resistant signatures,” but this The problem of the lost 4 million coins returning to circulation remains unsolved. He sees a 75% chance that these will not be frozen by a hard fork of the protocol. In other words, you believe that once you enter the market, there will be selling pressure for a certain period of time.
In that scenario, he argues, “the price would include the 4 million risk-adjusted coins sold.” To understand its scale, he compared that number to corporate accumulation, stating, “Since the strategy started accumulating BTC in 2020, only 2.8 million BTC in total has been accumulated in cash by all companies and ETFs (exchange traded funds). The 4 million BTC lost is equivalent to eight years of corporate accumulation.”
“The market has started pre-valuing the return of these lost coins,” he claimed. In his opinion, This process ends when the Q-Day risk is eliminated.. It is our hope for the moment when quantum computing will break current public-key cryptography.
Until then, expect Bitcoin’s price to take this risk into account. Wu notes that according to some Q-Day consensus, this milestone could be achieved within 5 to 15 years, although some predict it will be sooner. “We’re going to spend a lot of time operating with clouds hanging over our heads,” the analyst said, which is why he expects this to impact the performance of digital currencies.
Wu framed his warning in a macroeconomic context, saying, “This is the end of the long-term debt cycle, and it’s time for macro investors and sovereign nations to turn to hard assets like gold to protect themselves from global debt leverage. That’s why gold, not Bitcoin, is soaring.”
Still, he believes that “unfortunately, the next 10 years are when Bitcoin is needed most.” In this sense, We have not given up on our long-term bullish expectations. It was never brought to market due to factors such as scarcity and expected resistance to quantum computing.
Discussion of causality and market cycles
However, some people disagree with Wu’s diagnosis of the current situation. Investor Jean-Michel Rivera responded: “Confusing technical arguments with market causation is a fundamental analytical error. The gold-to-Bitcoin ratio is driven by cycles of global liquidity and risk appetite, not by theoretical vulnerabilities in future computing. Price movements reflect capital flows, and the current divergence is a typical consolidation after reaching historic resistance levels.”
However, Mr. Wu replied: “The nature of capital flows speaks volumes. Why has the Satoshi-era whale sold in the last 12 months?” In his view, this has to do with concerns about quantum computing.
Another criticism was also made, as shared in the graph below. Bitcoin crash Consistent with the 4 year cycle. Well, currencies always reached the end of a bull cycle the year after the halving. The latest version of this event, where asset issuance was halved, occurred in 2024. Therefore, if this pattern continues, 2026 will be a bearish year.
Similarly, some followers highlighted that this is not the first time that BTC temporarily loses its long-term uptrend against gold. They think it’s too early to talk about structural destruction.
Interest in quantum computing
Beyond discussion, other indicators and stakeholders They also warn of the dire consequences of quantum risk.. Search levels for “Bitcoin quantum computing” on Google peaked when the price hit an all-time high in October. And although it has since declined, the minimum interest rate has increased as you can see below.
For Charles Edwards, founder of Capriol Investments (the company that launched the Quantum stock index), that means that “the valuation of this risk peaked when prices were at their highest, thereby reducing risk and becoming a leading indicator of price declines.”
In his opinion, although “quantum threats caused Bitcoin’s decline,” something with a positive tinge. “The good news is that at least this means we are starting to gain momentum and attention in the right areas to solve the problem,” he said.
He mentioned organizations like Strategy and the Ethereum Foundation that are working on solutions to make the ecosystem quantum development-proof, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
