Glassnode’s latest thread has traders squinting at what appears to be a benign price situation on the surface, but a tense wireline options market underneath. The on-chain analytics provider noted that Bitcoin has recently consolidated between around $65,000 and $73,000, but added that options indicators tell a different story, including a rebuilding of open interest, rising implied volatility, and a market that remains on the defensive.
Spot Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$60,000s on Friday, showing a tug-of-war between buyers who stepped in after the sharp correction and sellers who remain wary of further downside. What makes reading Glassnode remarkable is the detail beneath its integration. Options open interest, which collapsed after December’s big expirations, is rebuilding and is now nearing its peak in late Q4 2025, evidence that traders are once again putting money into structured bets and hedging.
Its reconstruction is not neutral. One-month and three-month at-the-money implied volatilities have risen significantly, rising roughly 10 points in recent weeks, indicating that the market is pricing in the possibility of a stronger move ahead. Skew, a measure of demand for downside protection relative to upside, widened, rising from low single digits to high teens over the course of the month.
Simply put, investors are paying more for puts, buying convex protection against sudden declines, rather than paying for upside leverage. It also affects market structure. Dealers reportedly have a short gamma between approximately $58,000 and $74,000, concentrated around $63,000. This means that dealer hedging activity can amplify price movements and increase sensitivity to directional breaks, especially on the downside.
short term outlook
There are signs of rebalancing in short-term flows. After heavy put buying immediately following the decline from the $82,000 area, recent sessions have seen increased call activity, pushing the put/call volume ratio towards around 0.7. This suggests that the short-term positioning is stabilizing, even if the overall structure remains defensive.
However, options are not cheap compared to the risks. One-month implied volatility can be lower than recently realized volatility, indicating that if realized volatility remains high, implied volatility will have to rise further, potentially putting upward pressure on volatility and, therefore, option premiums.
The background to all of this is that the market remains unstable. While mainstream coverage of last week’s volatility highlighted renewed risk-off pressure across risk assets, some strategists warned of a deeper retracement if macro data disappoint.
For traders, the message is simple and clear. Below the seemingly stable price range, positioning has been restructured in favor of protection, leaving the market vulnerable to shocks. As such, a breakout in the $65,000-73,000 band is potentially even more intense and likely to be amplified by the very hedging flows currently in place.
