Bitcoin (BTC) has been flat at around $67,000 (USD) for three weeks. This move comes after a drop to 60,000 on February 6, 2026, which is 52% below the all-time high of 126,000 recorded on October 6, 2025. However, amid this tense calm, there is still potential for prices to fall in the short term.
“The $70,000 wall and technical breakpoint will likely lead to further declines,” said Zain Vawda, a market analyst at Market Pulse, an analysis service for trading company OANDA. In a report published on February 18, he explained that while macro and technical factors strengthen the bearish bias, Bitcoin has repeatedly rejected those levels.
The property has attempted to consolidate for more than $70,000 three times since Feb. 5; Each rally was followed by selling pressure.. In this context, the digital currency mainly fluctuated between $67,000 and $68,000, dropping by nearly 28% in February.
From a technical analysis perspective, Vawda says: symmetrical triangle formation The price of Bitcoin has plummeted. This number is made up of rising support and reflects the lows from the $60,000 rebound. And it completes with a descending resistance line formed by a lower high. This means that prices are compressed within a narrow range.
As the following chart shows, price has broken out of the lower zone of the triangle and the 50-day simple moving average. A breakout below that would ensure a bear market breakout, analysts say. the result, The next associated support will be $65,000, $60,000, or $56,625.depending on the level of selling pressure.
If this turns out to be a “false exit” and the price rises again and breaks through the triangle’s upside resistance, the bullish target could be closer to $80,000, the expert noted.
Contexts characterized by negative catalysts
According to Vawda, the market is facing a series of negative factors. Ranging from geopolitical tensions to regulatory hurdles and pressure on businesses. Bitcoin Treasury and.
In this sense, the increase in global conflicts has fostered an environment of risk aversion, with investors turning to traditional assets considered a haven. Under these circumstances, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset than gold.
This outlook is being driven by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The president is trying to get other governments to accept his plan, which includes buying Greenland. Moreover, the ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have further exacerbated this situation.
Besides, U.S. legislative stagnation regarding so-called transparency laws deepens. The sector had been hoping for months that the framework would provide greater regulatory certainty, but recent delays have dampened institutional optimism and dampened buying momentum.
Meanwhile, companies adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies are facing pressure from Bitcoin asset depreciation. Strategy recently added 2,486 BTC at an average price of $67,710, raising its reserves to over 717,000 BTC, but with an operating loss at current prices. Meanwhile, Metaplanet reported a decrease in the valuation of its holdings by approximately $665 million.
This panorama also shows the exit of Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) and the rotation of capital into sectors related to artificial intelligence. Contributes to the drain of liquidity from the market.
Bitcoin ETFs and derivatives attracting attention
Bitcoin Spot ETF has been withdrawing funds for 4 consecutive weeks, influence the price of an asset. This is because the management company buys and sells BTC according to stock demand and supply.
“If this (withdrawal) trend continues, the asset could be under further downward pressure in the short term,” Carolina Gama, country manager at crypto exchange BitGet, said in a statement to CriptoNoticias on February 18.
The directive added that the decline in open interest in the derivatives market below 260,000 BTC (the lowest level since October) indicates that investors are reducing their bullish positions. But with fewer open positions, he noted, significant short-term fluctuations are less likely.
According to Gama, from a technical level perspective, the daily closing price is below $65,729. $60,000 could provide space to test support. On the other hand, we believe that above $71,746 could strengthen the recovery scenario and move towards the $73,072 area.
Bitcoin is at an important price level
Amid the weakness shown by the market, Bitcoin remains below a reasonable level, the real market average of around $79,000. This indicator calculates the average cost of acquisition for active investors and is usually interpreted as the market equilibrium point.
According to analysis firm Glassnode, the asset falls between two key valuation metrics. On the other hand, the real market average is positioned as a potential resistance to the upside. on the other hand, A realized price of around $54,900 serves as a structurally possible lower bound.This was revealed by an analysis company.
The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoins in circulation, depending on the price of their last move on the network. This indicator allows us to approximate the level at which the market as a whole will remain invested.
Glassnode pointed out: In the absence of relevant macroeconomic catalysts, the range between such levels is likely to delimit behavior. Medium-term Bitcoin trends. As an expected sign, they cited improved liquidity.
It is the expectation of lower interest rates in the US that will enable greater economic liquidity. The end of current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s term in May has sparked such expectations. However, there are still no clear signs regarding subsequent monetary policy, and uncertainty continues.
For analysts like Willy Wu, Bitcoin is entering a bearish phase as global liquidity shrinks. In this sense, This action is expected to extend to the stock market as well. And digital currencies drive down prices.
Bitcoin’s decline since October has been correlated with software stocks, driven by uncertainty about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI). There are concerns that this technology will make traditional models obsolete. But there are also concerns about a potential bubble around AI, amid concerns that its capabilities are being overestimated.
In contrast, the S&P 500, which tracks the stock prices of prominent companies in a variety of sectors, exhibits divergent behavior. At the end of January, it hit a record high, The three-year upward trend continues and could soon come to an end.According to Wu.
Bear market could expand
The bearish outlook is consistent with Bitcoin’s historical pattern. The end of the bull cycle always comes the year after the halving, after which it has fallen by about 80%. In any case, the rate of such corrections has decreased slightly with each cycle. In the crypto winter of 2014, it fell by 86%, in 2018 by 83%, and in 2022 by 77%.
Based on these developments, Bitcoin, which reached its peak in 2025, the year after the most recent halving, may continue to decline. Based on past performance, the stock could fall about 75% from its all-time high. that This means this year’s crypto could be winter Find the bottom near $31,000as the following graph shows.
Ultimately, whether a lower price is granted depends on market demand and supply. Therefore, as with any asset, it is important to have a risk plan in place to avoid undesirable scenarios.
“The appropriate attitude in such a scenario is a combination of calm, disciplined investment planning and a long-term perspective,” said Ulises Mendieta, a human capital expert at CriptoNoticias and a psychologist with experience in psychological trading.
