The drop in Bitcoin (BTC) has raised hopes that a bearish cycle has begun, providing an opportunity to buy at lower prices. However, according to risk-reward analysis, some market participants believe that from a long-term perspective, the current price is already attractive even if the asset registers further decline.
On February 20, 2026, Bitcoin fell to $60,000, 52% below its all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, and has been trading around $68,000 (USD) for three weeks.
such an act Reinforcing the idea that the bottom of the cycle has not yet been reachedgiven that Bitcoin experienced a correction of around 80% in the previous crypto winter, as seen below. A significant drop from record, bringing the price to $25,000.
However, as Alex “Axel” Cuesta, investor and founder of Bitcoin investing education company Medusa Capital, explains: Waiting for a price drop isn’t always the best choice.
In the last crypto winter, in 2022, “everyone was super bearish while prices were falling,” he noted on February 9. When FTX’s bankruptcy sent the price down to $15,000, he recalled, some people predicted the price would drop to $10,000 or even $4,000. However, such predictions did not come true.
“The price hit rock bottom and went from $15,000 to $72,000 in just over a year. A lot of people didn’t buy because they believed it was going to go to $10,000, and they made the worst decision of their lives,” said Cuesta.
In this sense, investors think: The market faces a similar dilemma. “If the price drops to $40,000 that would be great. It would be a great buy. But we’re already seeing it start to price very low and sentiment is very bearish,” he said.
Importance of DCA
Cuesta said: The risk-reward (RR) of buying Bitcoin over a multi-year time horizon is starting to look lucrative.Regardless of the exact ground level uncertainty.
“The RR for purchases several years in the future is positive. I don’t know where Bitcoin will bottom, but what I do know is that everyone will now pay to buy at $15,000, $20,000, $30,000, $40,000 in 2022,” the businessman said. Along these lines, in his opinion, “it doesn’t matter whether you bought it at $60,000, $55,000, or $75,000” if the asset is trading at fairly high levels.
In fact, if you buy it for about $68,000 at current prices, Recovering records would mean an 85% increase in price. Finally. “And I won’t even tell you if your goal is not an all-time high, but rather a higher price,” Cuesta said.
The investor also warned of the risks of trying to predict a market bottom. “The mistake would have been to wait for $40,000 and never get it. Don’t underestimate the power of DCA and don’t think you’re smarter than the market,” he said.
A dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy consists of making purchases at regular intervals, allowing for overlap, and averaging the total acquisition cost. This technique is used especially during price declines to avoid reaching the bottom of the decline in a single entry.
Technical and macro analysis warns of short-term weakness
From a complementary perspective, technical analysis continues to reflect market vulnerabilities, said Zain Vawda, an analyst at OANDA’s analysis service MarketPulse. He said continued rejection of the $70,000 level and a break in the rising low structure “suggests further decline.”
If bullish momentum does not recover, specialists will We think a pullback toward $56,625 is plausible.as reported by CriptoNoticias. It attributes some of the economic deterioration to negative macroeconomic factors, such as rising geopolitical tensions and investors’ increased risk aversion.
This environment is influenced by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats in an effort to get other governments to support his administration’s strategic initiatives, including the proposed acquisition of Greenland. At the same time, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to increase global uncertainty.
para el analista onchain willy woo,Bitcoin begins a bearish phase related to shrinking global liquidity. Under this view, asset movements predict stock market weakness and can lead to a decline in prices.
Although there is still a possibility of a decline in the short term, some long-term investors view this type of period as beneficial for savings. These outlooks are based on bullish fundamentals such as scarcity and must take into account possible risks when operating.
