Only 3% of bettors on the beta.predyx platform believe that BIP-110 will be enabled for Bitcoin, and this proposal is actively promoted by developer Luke Dashjr.
The lack of optimism may reflect “disappointment” in the market, which does not believe BIP-110 is the way forward for Bitcoin. The purpose is to block non-monetary transactions, similar to Ordinals.
However, the developer learns that the current probability estimated by the bettor is 3%.
According to the programmers, the BIP is guaranteed to be active (applying new rules) at the latest in block 965,664 for one year. «BIP-110 state machine has no transition to fault state. Activated,” StackItDeep BIP-11 explained.
Simply put, Claims the proposal was not designed to ‘fail’.
His reading is that when software containing a BIP is run, new rules are automatically enabled and there is no internal mechanism to disable them.
However, just because the code does not consider fault conditions does not mean that the entire Bitcoin network will adopt them. For an update to have any real effect, a sufficient number of nodes and actors in the ecosystem must have that version of the software installed and using it.
Therefore, although the developers claim that there is no “failure” state for the arrival of BIP-110, the majority of Bitcoin nodes must adopt BIP-110 in order for it to be considered a “success”.
Predicted activation pathway
The BIP-110 initiative will reach Bitcoin through: Alternative implementation in the Bitcoin Knots clienta software led by developer Luke Dashjr, who is one of the main opponents of using Bitcoin as a storage system for arbitrary data.
The initiative, titled “Temporary Soft Fork to Reduce Data,” Propose temporary restrictions on non-monetary information This is stored on the network using a soft fork (soft fork).
According to its repository, BIP-110 is activated as a modified version of BIP-9 (an activation mechanism by which miners announce support for updates) in combination with UASF (User activated soft fork or user-triggered soft fork), i.e. Node that decides to apply new rules regardless of mining signaling.
As CriptoNoticias explains, in this framework, BIP-110 considers two possible activation pathways.
- The first is programmed activation or “Flag Day”set the block height to 965.664 on September 1, 2026, and from there Updated nodes will automatically start applying new rules.
- The second is reactive activation. This results in Immediately apply restrictions if substances are detected considered illegalit may even force a retroactive reorganization of the chain to invalidate the block containing it. This scenario is only possible if the majority of your network is running that version of the Knots software. Otherwise, a minority-led “reorganization” would not change the main chain, but would instead result in a fork and the creation of another alternative chain.
In both cases, the activation is Depends on which nodes adopt the modified software We deprecated Knots and abandoned Bitcoin Core, which is currently the most used client. The network does not automatically apply upgrades.
This difference is central. One is that when the software is executed, it does not consider failure conditions. Whether the entire network will adopt it is another matter.
This debate is not only technical, but also political. Although the market has doubts about its feasibility, proponents argue that the design of the proposal itself will ensure effectiveness for those who decide to implement it.
