Alex Leishman, CEO and founder of River, provided analysis based on first-party and public data to contextualize the price decline recorded since early 2026. The executive said that although the asset has fallen significantly from all-time highs, the current scenario is very different from previous Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets.
While attending an enterprise Bitcoin event, Leishman emphasized that despite the perceived crisis, the numbers are telling. It is small in scale compared to other historical cycles.
“We are in a bear market of sorts. “Bitcoin’s price has fallen nearly 40% since the beginning of 2025. But this is just one of many bear markets in Bitcoin’s history, and in fact one of the smallest,” he said.
Leishman said the fundamental difference during this period is the profile of the buyer. According to river data, individuals have been acting as “sellers”; Financial institutions are taking advantage of the decline to make savings.
“This bear market is unique. What makes it special is that this is the first bear market in the history of Bitcoin where institutional adoption is accelerating,” the businessman explained, adding that “the people who bought Bitcoin in 2025 were overwhelmingly institutional investors: corporations, funds, and governments.”
The following graph shows various Bitcoin bear markets and their total declines since 2010.
Millions of Bitcoins will be in the hands of institutions in 2035
Leishman’s analysis also suggested a change in command of Bitcoin ownership. This means that if the network was dominated by retail users during the first 10 years of the asset; 2020 marked a turning point with the entry of actors like Strategy..
The executive predicted that if current trends continue, “half of all Bitcoin could be in the hands of institutions by 2035.” This is an estimate that means an additional 9 million BTC will be accumulated in 10 years. Taking that into account, there are currently more than 2 million coins in institutional custody, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.
This movement is supported by traditional financial infrastructure. Leishman highlighted that 90% of top registered investment advisors (RIAs) in the US already have positions in Bitcoin. Additionally, more than 60% of major banks (including Citi, Bank of America, and PNC) have developed related products.
However, he cautioned that exposure remains minimal as the proportion of BTC in investment advisors is “still a small fraction”. Only 0.006% of assets they manageaccording to their figures.
Leishman also analyzed the behavior of mainstream companies that use Bitcoin not only as a speculative investment but also as a store of wealth. He said River’s corporate customer base, which includes everything from farms to food stalls, had doubled in the last year.
“These businesses are typically managed by owners who are already Bitcoiners and have decided to use BTC for long-term storage of their company’s assets. In fact, 63% of them plan to hold their Bitcoin indefinitely,” he highlighted.
For management, the growth of this operating company shows that the fundamental value of BTC is permeating the real economy. Beyond price fluctuations.
Despite Leishman’s institutional optimism, technical and on-chain indicator analysis points to a much more cautious outlook in the short term. Analysts like Nick O’Neill have suggested that Bitcoin could reach $40,000 by the end of March.
Similarly, professional trader Willy Wu issued a warning on February 18, noting that the bearish trend is increasing as volatility spikes. “Bad news for long-time bulls: Bitcoin continues to trend lower,” Wu wrote. As reported by CriptoNoticias, he pointed out that this bear market will officially begin in 2026.
In the face of these signs of technical weakness, Alex Leishman makes the case that system fundamentals take precedence over short-term metrics. “I believe this market decline is temporary and that the next cycle will continue to be driven by institutional adoption by both operating companies and unallocated investment assets,” he concluded.
