Bitcoin prices have been trading flat at around $68,000 over the past 24 hours, reflecting continued indecision. The broader 7-day trend still points to a modest decline, highlighting the lack of strong bullish momentum. But one prediction market position tells a much more optimistic story.
Polymarket expects a best February result of 17% and Bitcoin above $75,000. That makes this the most popular directional bet as the month approaches its final week. However, market structure, on-chain activity, and whale positioning suggest that reality may not match this bullish prediction.
Prediction markets support $75,000 – but hidden bearish divergence is a sign of trouble
Despite weakening sentiment, “above $75,000” remains the most popular target for February, according to predictive market data. This betting polymarket has over $88 million in trading volume and millions of dollars in active liquidity.
But the probability of a $75,000 outcome has already fallen by more than 50%, reflecting waning confidence.
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Maximum number of Polymarkets $BTC: Polymarket
At the same time, the next most likely outcome is “less than $60,000” with a 12% chance. This position reveals a growing divide in expectations. While many traders are still hoping for upside, much of the market is instead gearing up for a deeper correction.
key $BTC Price level: Polymarket
This heightened vigilance closely aligns with Bitcoin’s technical structure.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin hit new all-time highs between November 15th and February 16th. This means that the price has not been able to fully recover during the recent upward attempt.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum strength, formed even higher highs during the same period.
Bearish Divergence: TradingView
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This creates a hidden bearish divergence as Bitcoin was already trending down. This pattern typically indicates a continuation of an existing downtrend rather than a bullish reversal. This indicates that despite a temporary improvement in momentum, broad selling pressure remains in place.
Bitcoin has already corrected by nearly 6% since this divergence appeared. As long as this signal remains active, the chances of reaching the prediction market target of $75,000 remain limited.
Long-term holders have slowed their selling, but have not started buying.
The activity of long-term holders helps explain why prediction markets are still optimistic despite the increased risks. These investors may have held Bitcoin for more than a year. Their buying and selling patterns often determine whether Bitcoin enters a sustained rally or a correction.
On February 5th, long-term holders reduced their holdings by 244,919 shares. $BTC (30 day rolling change), a very large sell signal. By February 21, this number had increased to 81,019. $BTC. This means that selling pressure has decreased by approximately 67%.
This sharp slowdown in selling has helped stabilize Bitcoin prices and explains why some traders still expect upside.
However, long-term holders are still net sellers overall. They have not yet transitioned into accumulation. Although their activity has improved, it has not yet provided the strong buying support needed to push Bitcoin towards new highs.
This creates a neutral balance. Bitcoin may be able to avoid an immediate collapse, but it also lacks the strength needed for a major breakout that could push it near $75,000.
Whale behavior is fragmented
Whale locations reflect further uncertainty.
The largest Bitcoin whales with 100,000 to 1 million Bitcoin whales $BTCincreased the number of shares held from 676,540 $BTC up to 690,000 $BTC. This corresponds to an accumulation of approximately 13,460. $BTCsuggesting a cautious buy.
However, smaller whales can number anywhere from 10,000 to 100,000 individuals. $BTC Assets held decreased from 2.27 million $BTC Up to 2.26 million people $BTC. This means about 10,000 $BTC It was sold around the same time.
This opposing behavior shows a lack of unified belief, even though the net balance is slightly tilted towards accumulation. Some whales prepare for the rebound, while others continue to defend.
$BTC Whale”>
$BTC Whale: Santiment
At the same time, cost-based distribution data reveals a major resistance cluster between $72,600 and $73,200. Approximately 149,000 $BTC accumulated within this range. These levels are also clearly visible on the price chart as a major resistance zone just below $75,000.
Bitcoin cost base is on the rise: Glassnode
If Bitcoin approaches this area, many holders may sell to break even. And as you can see, the whale’s storage power is not yet strong enough to absorb the supply. This selling pressure creates a strong barrier that prediction markets may be underestimating.
What Bitcoin’s price structure shows $BTC Can remain trapped between major levels
Bitcoin’s price structure closely matches these on-chain cost-based clusters.
To reach the $75,000 forecast target, Bitcoin must first rise above $72,200. This level represents technical resistance and is close to one of the largest cost-based clusters on the chart. Breaking out of this zone would require an increase of at least 6% from current levels.
However, if this resistance cannot be overcome, a range move is likely to continue. On the downside, strong support exists between $64,300 and $63,800, with around $150,000 $BTC It had been accumulated.
On the Bitcoin price chart, the major zone-like support level is $63,300, a break above which would also mean a break in the supply cluster. A drop below $63,300 could bring Polymarket’s 12% chance of hitting the $60,000 zone.
Cost-based disadvantage: Glassnode
As a result, Bitcoin is currently trapped between two major cost-based zones. Resistance near $72,200 limits upside, while support near $63,300 prevents an immediate collapse.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
This range-bound structure suggests that prediction markets may be overestimating the likelihood of a breakout toward $75,000, while underestimating the increased risk of a continued consolidation or correction.
The article “Polymarket Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 Next Week, But Charts Disagree” appeared first on BeInCrypto.
