Bitcoin has experienced new net losses over the past week, with the leading cryptocurrency struggling to regain key technical levels. Meanwhile, recent market valuations show that price trends, although volatile, have generally remained within the range of $60,000 to $70,000.
Bitcoin’s $60,000 shield: long-term holders refuse to fold
In a recent QuickTake report, an anonymous analyst with the username GugaOnChain analyzed Bitcoin’s current market structure and described the battle between long-term beliefs and short-term pressures. According to on-chain platform data, Bitcoin is still in a mature bear market, consistent with the December 2025 forecast.
Analyst GugaOnChain pointed out that long-term holders are the main defense at the $60,000 support level. Notably, the 12-18 month UTXO cohort has increased from 9.67% to 11.09%, indicating that more Bitcoin is being stored for the long term.
This suggests growing confidence among holders who accumulated over a year ago and chose not to sell despite the market downturn. But he notes that this group reached much higher levels (30% to 44%) at the bottom of historic bear markets, suggesting structural support is forming. A definitive macro bottom may not yet be confirmed.
BTC’s next move depends on the return of US institutions
Interestingly, the low binary coin discard days (CDD) measurement of 0.14 supports the idea that older coins remain dormant. Long-term holders are not diversifying or panic selling, effectively acting as a liquidity anchor to prevent further collapse below $60,000.
On the resistance side near $70,000, active whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have been identified as the main source of selling pressure. Their distribution directly counters the resilience of long-term holders and dampens upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative (-0.04), indicating weak US institutional demand and a broader macro environment characterized by risk aversion. Without a strong influx of institutional investors, the market will lack the catalyst needed for a sustained breakout.
Furthermore, short-term holders have experienced capitulation as reflected in the MVRV-STH (Market Capitalization to Realized Value – Short-Term Holders) ratio of 0.74, meaning that many are exiting their positions at a loss. Overall, this shows that Bitcoin is entering a cleansing phase. Long-term value is gradually emerging, but sustained upside depends on a recovery in US institutional demand and changes in the macro landscape.
As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $63,823, reflecting an increase of 5.75% over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
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