Polymarket shelves nuclear detonation market after protests

Bettors have long been able to speculate on the possibility of a nuclear detonation on Polymarket, but the current conflict with Iran, and heightened scrutiny of insider trading in the wake of the war, appears to have caused the platform to remove the contract.

Markets that ask users to assign a probability of whether or not a nuclear weapon will detonate by a certain date have been circulating on Polymarket for years, and have historically yielded a “no” conclusion.

But the renewed attention to the deal comes as the prediction market faces criticism after traders reportedly bet more than $400,000 on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s ouster shortly before the US operation that led to his capture, raising questions whether insiders could abuse the platform to trade for the outbreak of war or other military action, such as the start of the current conflict with Iran.

Past transactions suggest that contracts sometimes incorporate significant risks.

According to the platform’s data, the 2023 contract with Polymarket at one point suggested that the probability of a nuclear weapon detonating by the end of the year was approximately 19%.

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(Polymarket)

The generic market, which expires in June 2025, traded at nearly 12%.

There was also extensive trading activity in the market. The 2025 contract alone generated more than $1.7 million in turnover, and the 2023 edition brought in nearly $700,000 in bets.

All of this is happening as US regulators consider how to oversee prediction markets.

In 2024, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules that would prohibit exchanges regulated by the commission from listing event contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, or other activities deemed contrary to the public interest.

Chairman Mike Selig said the commission plans to issue clearer guidance on prediction markets in the near future.