Bitcoin’s current structure may be evolving in a manner very similar to the evolution that led to it. 2022 bear market. chart share The analyst report on X highlights several technical signals that appeared during the 2021-2022 transition and are re-emerging in 2026. According to the comparison, the market may still face new situations A downturn before a definitive bottom is formed.
Bitcoin’s 50-week SMA decline is a sign of structural change
In the last cycle, Bitcoin peaked in 2021 and eventually Below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). This breakdown marked a turning point in the broader market structure. After losing the level, the price entered a short-term consolidation phase, and a temporary recovery rebound occurred, but the recovery failed to regain the lost structure. This weakness ultimately led to a prolonged decline that defined the 2022 bear market.
A similar sequence is currently being seen following the expected 2026 cycle top. According to @_cryptflow_ of X, Bitcoin recently fell below the 50-week SMA after an early-cycle peak. This indicator has historically been sustained bullish momentum This means that losses often indicate changes in the underlying strength of the market.
This graph also outlines a similar reaction after a failure. In both cycles, prices briefly stabilized after falling below the moving average. tried to recover. However, these rebounds failed to regain the lost levels and the broader downward structure was left intact.
This stage is shown on the chart with a consolidation box forming after a break below the 50-week SMA. This zone represents a relief rally stage where prices try to recover, but struggling to regain momentum. In the previous cycle, a temporary stabilization was followed by another significant decline, suggesting that the current structure could still evolve in a similar direction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals a move into a bear market
Beyond the price structure, this chart also highlights the RSI movement. During the last market transition, the RSI falling below the 45 level signaled the beginning of a sustained bearish phase and separated bullish momentum from bullish momentum. prolonged period of weakness.
The same pattern is emerging again, with the chart showing the RSI falling below the 45 level recently, reflecting a break in momentum ahead of an extended decline in 2022. This shift suggests that fundamental market strength may already be weakening as conditions move away from the bullish environment that characterized the early stages of the business cycle.
The RSI chart has downtrend line It has repeatedly held back momentum since the cycle’s peak. Several breakout attempts occurred during the last bull phase, but all ultimately failed before momentum reversed. Similarly failed breakout attempts are now visible in the current cycle.
If the broader structure continues to reflect the previous template, the chart suggests Bitcoin may continue to experience another down leg before a transparent bottom is formed. Although cycles rarely repeat in the same way, this comparison highlights how similar momentum shifts and structural disruptions are occurring. Historically, more severe market corrections preceded.
Featured image created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
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