As the Bitcoin price maintains an upward trend above $71,000, with a slight upward trend, Polymarket prediction market operators are focusing their bets on the expected price of BTC at the monthly closing price. And the greatest consensus among platform participants falls in a range suggesting moderate optimism.
The highest probability is assigned to the level where the price of the digital currency is between $75,000 (62%) and $65,000 (53%). Thus, this March 10th data from Polymarket shows that the market We think it is very likely that prices will remain relatively stable at the end of March..
According to platform records, it costs 58 cents to buy a “YES” contract with a $75,000 option, reflecting an implied probability of 57% to 58%. If the prediction is correct, the value of the contract is $1..
This move comes after hitting a low of $65,513 over the weekend. All this took place within the framework of the Middle East conflict that has been developing between the United States, Israel and Iran since February 28th.
In that sense, Bitcoin is up 15% from its February 6th low of $60,074.
The probability of reaching $100,000 is low.
Looking at the extreme betting on Polymarket, we see a clear trend towards bullish stability. For participants, there is a 27% chance that Bitcoin will exceed $80,000. meanwhile The probability of seeing a stratospheric price, such as $100,000 or more, drops dramatically to 1%..
Regarding the autumn scenario, the market judges as follows: Chance of serious crash is very low. With only a 7% drop below $50,000, a level below $40,000 would be nearly impossible for these users (1% probability).
There are 21 days and 13 hours left until betting ends, and these percentage changes will come under pressure as the deadline approaches.
Despite some optimism, bearish sentiment persists
The recent price recovery, which is above USD 70,000 at the time of writing, may be creating positive expectations in the market. This is likely contributing to the mild optimism seen in the polymarket, which ignores the significant decline in prices.
However, some industry voices recommend: maintain an alert posture And don’t discard your modifications.
“If extreme fear in the market increases, Bitcoin could continue to fall to the $60,000 and $53,000 levels,” Lipio Exchange CEO Sebastian Serrano said in a statement to CriptoNoticias.
It is noteworthy that CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index rose to 28 points, marking a small step forward. this Delving into “fear” for emotional recovery from “extreme fear”. This indicates that selling pressure has eased slightly, although there is still some pessimism. So while investors are being cautious, we are no longer in a state of paralysis or total collapse.
Regarding the duration of this bear market cycle, Serrano said: “We believe we are entering a short crypto winter of about a year. Assuming the cooling begins in October 2025, the cooling could continue into October or December of this year.
