Bitcoin
“The crypto market is emotionally driven because its basic assessment is challenging. Therefore, technical analysis signals such as double-top warrants. It requires a catalyst like the 2022 Terra collapse and FTX explosion. Coindosk in interviews.
Bitcoin has been exchanging 50 days, primarily between $110,000 and $100,000, indicating fatigue from the uptrend near the highs reached in January this year. This has prompted several observers, including veteran technical analyst Peter Blunt, to consider the possibility that BTC trends could hit bearish in a double-top pattern.
The double top consists of two consecutive peaks, nearly $110,000 in the case of BTC, with trendlines drawn from the lower point between these peaks. The lower point of BTC cases is that the slides in early April will be $75,000. Analysts are concerned that potential double-top failures could hit around $27,000, including a drop of $110,000 to less than $75,000. Yes, you read it correctly. Such a crash means a slide of 75% from the peak.
Technical patterns such as double-tops are often self-fulfilling prophecies. Once traders find patterns, their collective actions reinforce the expected outcome. So it’s natural that leads over $100,000 with double tops cause attention and price drops.
However, technical alone rarely results in a 75% price crash. For example, the BTC crash in the 12 months from November to November 2022 was due to the publication of asset classes like Crypto, which had accumulated over speculation, setting the stage for the end of the Terra blockchain and FTX exchange. Both events caused massive destruction of wealth.
Flow-driven bull run
But as Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal said last year, the latest gatherings are driven primarily by institutional flows, rather than narratives and the narrative or pretense that Ethereum is superior to the computers of the New World.
Since debuting with NASDAQ in January 2024, the 11-spot Bitcoin Exchange Trade Fund (ETF) has registered over $48 billion net inflows per data tracked by far-side investors. Meanwhile, BTC’s adoption as a corporate financial asset has gained pace and has gained the bull’s momentum. At the time of writing, 141 public companies had 841,693 BTC, according to Bitcointreasuries.net.
According to Tischhauser, the flow-driven nature of the latest bull run makes it more resilient than the previous bull market.
“The institution will conduct strict due diligence and risk assessments before adding new asset classes like Bitcoin to its model portfolio, but the final allocation is long-term.
Tischhauser explained that these investment instruments sweep liquidity and distort the dynamics of demand supply in favor of continuous uptrends.
“These investment vehicles suck liquidity from the market. This means that every time new ticket investors hit the market with bids, this becomes less and less and the bullish impact on prices becomes more pronounced,” Tishhauser said.
Half of the cycles may be dead
The bearish double-top crash scenario looks plausible to many observers. We are paving the way for a year-long bear market as it is a post-harving year marked historically as a top of the bloom market.
Harving is the programmed code for Bitcoin’s blockchain, reducing the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last half occurred in April 2024, reducing the per block BTC reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
However, as sticky institutional adoptions have a greater impact on prices than miners, half the cycle may not develop as expected. Furthermore, BTC, where regulated offload coins acquired to fund operational costs are sold by miners, currently accounts for a small percentage of average daily trading volume.
“The change in market leadership means that half-half cycles of four years may not play religiously as before. Most previous BTC owners were miners, and BTC issued annually was a large part of the outstanding Bitcoin supply. Therefore, sales pressure from miners is very important to market prices. Tishhauser said that the harving cycle could be dead.
