Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of Cryptoquant, shared a disappointing prognosis for the price of Bitcoin (BTC).
“The upward cycle is over,” he said through the publication of X’s personal account.
The projection is based on data On-chain, Especially in action Capitals have been enforcedan indicator that estimates how much capital actually entered the market.
“When BTC enters the wallet, it is considered a purchase and a sale. You can estimate the average cost of this idea. Multiplying this value by the amount of BTC stored, you usually get the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market through actual chain activities.
Here, it is important to make a difference in market capitalization. In this regard, Ju states: “Many people misunderstand this concept. If someone buys BTC worth $10, the market capitalization only increases by $10. Instead, the price is determined by the balance between the pressures of purchasing and selling the order,” he said.
In other words, BTC’s market capitalization does not reflect the money that has entered the marketbut you can get it by multiplying the latest prices by circulating total coins.
If someone buys BTC at a higher price than the previous one, referring to the example of JU, this new price will be taken as a reference to calculate the market capitalization. This does not mean that millions of dollars have entered Bitcoin, but that the price of the coin has been changed based on that last operation.
To bolster his paper, he said, “Even small purchases can increase prices (and therefore market capitalization) significantly when sales pressure is low.” However, he made this clear: “When sales pressure is high and even large purchases can’t move prices. For example, when Bitcoin cited around $100,000, the market recorded a huge amount, but prices barely moved.”
Therefore, he said that if capitalization has grown, but the market capitalization stagnates or decreases, It is a sign of a “classic bear signal that contains capital but does not rise in prices.”. Additionally, he explained:
“If the capital implemented while the outcomes are rising, it suggests that even small amounts of new capital are driving upward prices. We see that capital is currently entering the market, but prices are unresponsive. This is typical of a bear market.”
Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of Cryptoquant.
This analysis highlights the important differences between market capitalization and capitalization.
The analysis includes a graph comparing BTC’s market capitalization with the upward market stage (Bull Market) and the bassist (Bear Market), highlighted in green and red regions, respectively.
The graph reflects the fact that although the market capitalization is still high, a small red area is observed at the end of the graph. This indicates that the market is in or continues at a bearish stage.
Finally, Ju states: “Selling pressures can always go down, but historically, it seems unlikely that a short-term rebound will be possible, as actual return will take at least six months.”
When experts mention that “actual return takes at least six months,” it refers to the market that leaves a bear stage and needs to resume a solid bullish trend. This does not necessarily mean new crypto winter, but rather pause or consolidation within the cycle.
This analysis appears at complex moments Digital asset market suffers from the outcomes of Donald Trump’s adsPresident of the United States, within the framework of “Day of Liberation.”
Despite this typical fall, Bitcoin price remains at $82,00025% below the record high of $109,110 (ATH).
As reported by Cryptonotics, on April 2nd, the president announced mutual tariffs in several countries, including China and the European Union.
The news immediately affected the price of digital assets. The evidence for this is that 90 of the 100 cryptocurrencies within a market capitalization of 100 were stained red.
This occurs because most investors believe BTC and cryptocurrency are risky assets. Therefore, in the context of economic uncertainty and political tensions, they usually choose to move their holdings to equipment that are not exposed to market volatility, such as financial ties. However, as reported by Cryptonoticias, the community shows that at the time Bitcoin exhibited unfortunate behavior in risky assets.
