Two market analysts on Tuesday warned that macroeconomic conditions, including potential US and EU tariff hikes and geopolitical tensions, are positioning Bitcoin to decline, in line with veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction.
Blunt, who has been a futures trader since 1975 and has more than 852,000 followers on X, said of Bitcoin late Monday: BTC$91,106.80 It could fall to between $58,000 and $62,000 within the next two weeks.
In the X post, Brandt shared a graph showing the key resistances. BTC At around $102,300, he said, Bitcoin is still in a bearish downtrend. “I think $58,000 to $62,000 is where it’s going.”BTC. If it doesn’t go, I won’t be embarrassed. So we don’t have to see trolls screenshot this anymore,” Blunt wrote.
He added, “I’m wrong 50% of the time. I don’t care if I’m wrong.”
Jason Fernandez, a market analyst and co-founder of Adornum, said Brandt’s goal is possible, but stressed that macro conditions may be more important than chart patterns.
“Mr. Brandt’s $58,000-$62,000 target is technically achievable, but the driver here is macro, not charts,” Fernandez said.
Fernandes pointed to several factors that could contribute to the decline.
“U.S. inflation below 2% has not translated into easing policy, as central banks remain cautious,” he said. “If tariffs and geopolitical tensions intensify, there is a risk that inflation will flare up again and rate cuts will be delayed. Tensions between the United States and Europe over Greenland will also intensify, raising the possibility of a shift to defense of high interest rates.”
“As long as interest rates remain restrictive and liquidity remains constrained, Bitcoin’s return to the mid-$50,000 range is firmly underway,” Fernandez added.
Matty Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, agreed with Brandt’s assessment of probability.
“As Mr. Brandt said, there’s a 50-50 chance that prices will fall that far. Technical settings are important, but after several years of Fed-led liquidity withdrawals and one of the worst economies in decades, macro conditions are likely to be more important than any single chart pattern,” Greenspan said.
Mr. Fernandes concluded by sharing the following views: “I will be closely monitoring developments in Greenland, the Federal Reserve, and US interest rates to better gauge Bitcoin’s next move.”
In a long-term forecast, data from decentralized trading venues shows that there is a 30% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 by June. Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange, has a similar position.
