The major issues remain with the revision of the $109,300 (USD) record high price (BTC) registered two months ago. Has Bitcoin reached this upward cycle roof, or is there more space to climb?
In response to this unknown, investment fund issuer Fidelity Digital Assets Areas has published a report analyzing its behavior.
“Bitcoin is in the acceleration phase, and historically there have been two price increases,” he replies in a report published on March 31, 2025. The second climb is still missing.
A year ago, in March 2024, Bitcoin exceeded its previous cycle maximum in 2021 (US$69,000) to reach USD73,000. And it wasn’t until November that it made a strong move on top. Since it exceeded US$20,000 in December 2020, there has been a Fidelity catalogue as a stage of true pricing discovery.
“Historically, this type of change has been seen in past accelerated phases. This is a moment of Bitcoin’s price cycle, characterized by high volatility and high profits,” the company explains.
To contextualize, Fidelity recalls that in both 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin experienced a rise in new records, exploding to even higher contributions after lateral movement. Even in the 2021 cycle he received two bullish waves, but the first wave was big and the second wave didn’t get that price at a much higher level.
“The current cycle trajectory has not yet been fully developed, but these historical similarities suggest the potential for similar upward changes,” Fidelity says. So if there is a second increase after being seen in November, it will distinguish. Prices BTC could reach at least around 110,000 US dollarsreached January 20, 2025 just above his record.
In discussion, the analytics company also shows the volatility that has been rapidly increasing weekly Bitcoin has been created. This is consistent with the behavior observed during the acceleration phase, and an increase in this metric has been historically seen.
Furthermore, the company distinguishes that Bitcoin’s monthly volatility has historically won a decline, More frequently and significantly. This also exceeds the behavior of the S&P 500 (SPX), the index of the main 500 US actions, as highlighted in the following graph.
“That being said, falls are an inherent part of the acceleration phase and can be a challenge for investors,” Fidelity says. However, it makes clear that recent setbacks are relatively average compared to previous cycles. “This suggests that volatility may decrease in both directions as Bitcoin matures,” he says.
“The Bitcoin Cycle can still be over with fireworks”: Faithful
The acceleration phases of 2010-2013 and 2017 reached their maximums after 244, 261 and 280 days, respectively. Reflects slightly larger phase in each cycle. Meanwhile, the current round is 260 days.
“This does not necessarily mean that the current phase will end within this particular period,” he says. However, “historical precedents suggest that the increased acceleration phase increases the probability of an explosion roof,” he adds.
“History shows that Bitcoin’s acceleration phase, like the grand final of the fireworks show, can quickly lose impulses and end with a sharp, dramatic rebound before entering the inversion phase.”
Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of Fidelity Digital Assets
With this historical pattern, the Fidelity team considers it Bitcoin upward cycle may not be over yet. This coincides with the outlook of other analysts who expect factors such as interest rate cuts to motivate the market when they are completed in the year.
