Polymarket users bet that Bitcoin (BTC) prices are likely to continue with a medium-term downward trend.
As of Wednesday, traders have placed a lot of capital behind the ongoing BTC price drop in August, compared to bets on a rebound to a new all-time high.
Traders bet on 80% chance of decreasing to $111K
In the market questioned, “What price will Bitcoin collide with in August?”, traders reduced the odds of BTC to 111,000-80%.
In contrast, another market believes there is only a 29% chance that traders will rise to $125,000 this month, indicating that they underscore the current bearish mood.
Related: PlanB’s Bitcoin model shows a post-recorded pass to $500,000 after the end of July at $115,000
Why are traders so bad at Bitcoin?
This sentiment follows Bitcoin’s struggle to regain momentum after winning an all-time high of around $122,838 on July 14, 2025. The flagship coin has recently recovered from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but medium-term bearish sentiment has been strengthened by an increase in distribution from short-term holders.
According to Cryptoquant’s on-chain data, short-term holders are actively selling Bitcoin. Meanwhile, long-term holders remain largely immovable and continue to hold assets as a hedge against inflation.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast for August 7th
ETF Effect: Institutional Demand is Declining
Demand for Bitcoin by Spot BTC ETF publishers has declined in recent past compared to the past four months. According to SOSOValue market data, US Spot BTC ETF issuers recorded a total net cash outflow of $1.34 billion in August, compared to $18.8 billion recorded in the past four months.
Historically, a decline in BTC demand from Spot ETF publishers has been associated with a decline in the market and vice versa.
But can history provide a bullish surprise?
However, looking at Bitcoin’s historic performance offers more complicated photos.
Bitcoin prices have recorded a choppy August break over the past decade, but earnings of over 65% in the 2017 Crypto Summer, according to Coinglass market data. The 2025 bull market portrays a high correlation with the 2017 cycle, so BTC prices could rebound faster than most traders expect.
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