Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing a phase of technical and structural contraction Since the end of January 2026, market trends have changed.
According to the latest report from analytics firm Glassnode, published on February 18, 2026. Digital assets have lost significant support by falling below the true market average (True market average value), currently nearing $79,000.
It is worth clarifying that the actual market average is an indicator of on-chain analysis. Estimate the average acquisition cost for active investors, excluding capital paid to miners.. This indicator aims to indicate the “fair value” or equilibrium point of companies currently active in the market. Therefore, when the price of Bitcoin falls below this level, the asset is considered to have lost its conviction support.
This movement marks the beginning of the “field of defense” Selling pressure is prevailing, and the institutional liquidity that pushed prices up several months ago is showing signs of drying up.
In the current scenario, the currency is placed between the two pillars of the on-chain valuation: the resistance at $79,000 and the realized price near $54,900, which acts as the lower bound of the structure. The average acquisition cost of all Bitcoins in circulation is called the “realized price,” and it values each unit at the price it last moved through the network, rather than its current market price.
Glassnode and CryptoVizArt analysts Chris Beamish and Antoine Colpaert said this price range is likely to “determine the medium-term outlook” for investors unless there are significant macroeconomic catalysts.
Market “under pressure and in range”
A true market average loss is no small event. In previous cycles, the breakdown looked like this: long-term compression. Glassnode describes Bitcoin’s current situation as “under pressure and range bound,” emphasizing that the price is in an absorption phase.
Despite the drop, the report reveals a large demand pool between $60,000 and $69,000. Formed in early 2024, this zone acts as a buffer.
On-chain data suggests that holders who acquired the coin during that period have maintained their positions for more than a year, demonstrating resilience in avoiding a larger impulsive decline. But analysts at Glassnode warn that defending this level signals a shift towards consolidation rather than an imminent rebound.
Weak accumulation and outflow of institutional capital
One of the most important points made by the report reviewed by CriptoNoticias is that Changes in behavior with large wallets.
The Accumulation Trend Index (ATS) weights the movements of companies with the most capital. indicates a “fragile” balance. After falling to $79,000, the market moved from aggressive distribution to neutrality (around 0.43).
For Bitcoin to resume its upward path, “A sustained recovery will require new clusters of large companies,” Glassnord said.
So far, that belief is not evident from Bitcoin network data. Adding to this is the fact that overall liquidity remains limited. The ratio of realized gains to losses (90D) has been stuck between 1 and 2, a level that historically characterizes stress periods where capital turnover declines.
At the organizational level, the outlook is not so bright.. The U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which was the driving force behind the rally, has reversed the trend. The Glassnode report highlights:
ETF flows have once again turned to sustained outflows, losing a major structural supply. Institutional demand can no longer cushion the decline.
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company.
The following graph shows how Bitcoin ETF capital outflows have increased.
Bitcoin Derivatives: From Panic to Caution
Despite the bearish atmosphere in the spot market (spot), Derivatives sector shows signs of stabilizationalthough not necessarily bullish. Implied volatility and risk premiums are starting to normalize, suggesting that the “forced cover phase” that followed the initial decline is over.
Asymmetry (skewThe share of options measuring demand for downside protection fell from 20% to 11%. This shows that extreme fear has faded, but traders still prefer to cover the downside rather than bet on explosive upside.
According to a report by Glassnode, the market has moved from a panic-fueled reaction to a “controlled consolidation.”
Markets are no longer predicting an imminent collapse scenario, but instead reflect expectations for consolidation with a narrower range of volatility.
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company.
Bitcoin seems destined for a period of dormancy
The Glassnode report concludes that Bitcoin is in a structurally defined corridor. Success in the coming weeks will depend on whether prices can sustain above the realized price of $54,900 and whether buyers can absorb supply in the $60,000 area.
For Glassnode analysts, the conclusion is clear. The current structure is defensive in nature.
As long as spot CVD remains negative on platforms like Binance and Coinbase, market bias will remain vulnerable. Only by stabilizing capital flows and improving liquidity conditions can real market average resistance be overcome.
This improvement in the liquidity situation could occur, for example, if there were clear signs of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED) in the United States. There have been no signs of this yet, despite the appointment of Kevin Warsh, an ally of President Donald Trump, as the organization’s chairman.
Until these factors match, Glassnode asserts that Bitcoin appears destined for a period of technological lethargy Here, “absorption within the defined boundaries between the main evaluation pillars remains the main structural theme.”
