The September Bitcoin Scenario (BTC) ignited the alarms for traders and analysts as data. On-chain They provide signs of cooling that could end up in an upward market if it is maintained over time.
One of these signs is accumulation, and that trend softened last month. This comes with moderate beliefs from a great investor cohort. If BTC is maintained above the USD 100,000 level for more than 100 days.
In general, this smooth signal in accumulation is interpreted as a “cautious offer,” and according to GlassNode analytics firm, “can make the market “vulnerable to excess supply” unless demand is strengthened again.
It is worth clarifying that GlassNode defines “accumulation trend score” as “an indicator that reflects the relative size of entities that actively accumulate on-chain from the perspective of BTC holdings.”
In the following graph, you can see how September is marked red. This indicates that the accumulation score has decreased and that great actors have not purchased with such beliefs.
If Bitcoin is available for sale that can sell more Bitcoin than buyers at the current price, there will be an excess supply. This causes bearish pressure, Because sellers have to lower prices to find demand.
Generally, a low accumulation by large holders and a low willingness to sell remains exposed markets. If demand does not grow at the same rate as the offer, Imbalance can be translated into a long-term stage of price decline or integration Until the right to purchase resumes strength.
“It’s not a global phenomenon.”
Bitcoin’s Venezuelan investor Guillermo Fernandez, businessman and cryptocurrency consultant, opposition from the vision of GlassNode. For him, BTC does not have such vulnerability to oversupply. In his opinion, this currency is not subject to the “market gap in general-level purchase orders.” He believes that “specific cases” could occur, where the market dissociates due to liquidity shortages.
“But it’s not a global phenomenon,” Fernandez explains to cryptonoticism, as investors are effectively mitigated but not indifferent, perhaps as US clear laws await approval, immediately defining the regulatory framework for the BTC market.
What is shown by Fernandez makes sense when it takes it into consideration Capital input flows and cryptocurrency exchanges to Bitcoin are decliningwhich suggests a change in emotionality in the market.
According to encrypted data, the 7-day mobile average of all exchanges total entries shows a continuous decline. In the cash market, high ticket levels typically predict sales pressure. With derivatives, the scenarios are different. Increased entries can lead to volatility as they are used for both advantages and short positions.
In that order of ideas, the recent decline in this metric may reflect a greater nature for maintaining BTC from the exchange, reducing immediate offers that are usually beneficial to the price of digital assets.
In the following graph, we can better evaluate the decrease.
The amount of Bitcoin had to be taken into account in exchanges, fell to the lowest level in seven years, and a total of 2.4 million BTC was accumulated on these exchange platforms.
Bully Quarter
Considering the above, there is a debate to know if the Bitcoin market has reached the roof. Some people think so, like TrainingView community analysts known as Excavo. For him, the Bitcoin bear market has already arrived, so he believes the currency price will drop to US$90,000 in the coming weeks.
However, other experts such as Carter Jordan have pointed out that the trend in digital currency is “biased towards bullish vibrations.” With this in mind, this could be extended until the end of the year. Historically, BTC (and its market) has been performing well in the fourth quarter since 2020.
With the exception of 2022, when the collapse of FTX caused a bear market quarter from Covid-19, the pandemic has exceeded 20% and three periods exceeded 50%.
For example, in 2020, the fourth quarter ended with a performance of 119.3%. In 2021, it was 21.4%. 2022, down, that was -15.9%. Then, in 2023 and 2024, 55% and 54.7% of closures were positive, respectively. This can be seen in HashDex graphics.
According to the organization, the environment where institutional interests and macroeconomic factors are on the brink of crisis and macroeconomic factors are on crisis, so 2025 is expected to be able to repeat that trend.
This vision is in line with Jason Hamlin, founder of Nicoya Research, who claims that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 in the second half of 2025 and can approach $200,000 in the first quarter of 2026. He claims that digital currency is in the integration phase and “we haven’t touched the roof of trend channels yet.”As reported by Cryptonoticia.
Fernandez thinks the same way. Investors show that demand for BTC continues to increase and affects prices. Additionally, based on the forecast model, we will place the BTC price between USD 117,000 and USD 122,000 by the end of the year.
«I believe Bitcoin will fill in the rise in relation to its starting point for 2025. There is no normal scenario back to 100,000 USD. Particularly due to the clarity of US institutional adoption and regulations.
Guillermo Fernandes, BTC inverter, cryptocurrency.
It is clear that reality reflects the market for transition and integration. There, signs of vulnerability coexist with excessive supply and new impulses. Thus, the interaction between accumulation, entry into exchange, and institutional investment dynamics indicates the evolution of prices for the remaining years.
