Bitcoin price today traded around $76,971 after breaking through multiple support levels in one session, stabilizing after hitting a low of $74,502. The move comes amid a convergence of simultaneous macro shocks, including President Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, which reset interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, which pushed risk sentiment to extreme fear.
Warsh’s nomination and Iran tensions pose cascading risks
The decline was caused by two simultaneous shocks. Monetary policy expectations were reset overnight when President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Mr. Warsh’s hawkish reputation and criticism of balance sheet expansion undermined the odds of a rate cut in the first half of 2026, sending the dollar soaring.
Reports of an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port added geopolitical risks, reignited U.S. concerns about Iranian escalation, and pushed oil prices higher.
Bitcoin did not work as a hedge. Instead, it traded as a high-beta risk asset and was sold off aggressively as investors raised cash to cover losses elsewhere. The dollar became the preferred haven, rather than cryptocurrencies or gold.
Spot outflows reached their highest level since November
$BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
Spot outflows on February 2 were $266.54 million, one of the largest single-day distributions since the November correction, according to Coinglass data. The size of the selloff reflects panic rather than orderly reallocation.
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When spot outflows spike with a price crash, it usually indicates the capitulation of a weak hand. However, the macro context suggests that this may be the beginning of a reprice rather than a top bottom.
Weekly Chart Test Critical 100 EMA Support
$BTC Price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has broken above the 20-day EMA at $93,219, the 50-day EMA at $95,519, and is currently testing the important 100-week EMA at $85,832. The session low of $74,502 briefly fell below this level before recovering.
The $74,000 to $78,000 zone represents a major horizontal support that held during the 2024 consolidation. If the weekly close is below this level, the macro structure will shift from a correction to a possible trend reversal.
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The RSI has fallen to 38.85 on a weekly basis, approaching oversold territory but not yet reaching the historic lows. This indicator suggests that further decline is possible before a sustained reversal forms.
Short-term structure shows a yielding pattern
On the two-hour chart, the collapse from $90,000 to $74,500 occurred within 48 hours, creating a capitulation pattern characterized by accelerating selling and increasing volume. The Supertrend indicator turned bearish at $80,251 and continues to decline.
The parabolic SAR is at $77,534, indicating immediate resistance to any recovery attempts. Prices have recovered above this level at $76,983, suggesting short-term stability may be forming.
The rebound from $74,502 indicates buying interest at lower levels, but the structure remains bearish. All attempts at recovery over the past week have been accepted, and there is no evidence yet that this pattern has changed.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise?
The trend remains bearish despite continued macro headwinds with prices trading below the weekly EMA cluster.
- Bullish case: A weekly close above $85,832 would confirm the 100-week EMA and indicate that the crash is a liquidation event rather than the start of a deeper correction. That scenario would require geopolitical tensions to ease and markets to digest Warsh’s nomination.
- Bearish case: A weekly close below $74,000 would break the 2024 support structure and expose the $68,378 zone where the 200-week EMA is located. With a hawkish Fed chair in office and geopolitical risks rising, this scenario has meaningful probability.
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