Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, says the Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to experience cyclical booms and busts, with the next market downturn leading to a drawdown of up to 70%.
Budokhi told Cointelegraph at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) that BTC will see a 65% to 70% retracement over the next two years because traders do not understand the assets they are holding. he said:
“Bitcoin will not lose its usefulness at $70,000. The problem is that people don’t know its usefulness, and when people buy an asset that they don’t know and don’t understand, they sell it first. That’s where the selling pressure comes from.”
A graph analyzing investor sentiment patterns at various points in the Bitcoin market cycle. sauce: root
Despite this, Budoki still predicts that Bitcoin will reach over $1 million per coin within the next decade, and said that a combination of price speculation and, more importantly, real-world BTC use cases will drive user adoption.
Analysts, industry executives, and investors continue to predict when Bitcoin will reach seven-digit prices and whether the market dynamics that have defined the BTC cycle since its inception in 2009 will still be in effect in 2025.
Related: Bitcoin white paper celebrates 17th anniversary as BTC’s first Red October in 7 years approaches
Has Bitcoin grown beyond its 4-year cycle?
According to market analyst and co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, the four-year Bitcoin cycle is over.
According to Hayes, the price of Bitcoin is influenced more by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and money supply growth, and less by cyclical patterns.
Other analysts point to increased adoption by institutional investors and the presence of these institutions as a stabilizing force that reduces price volatility and calms markets.
According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, financial institutions including governments, digital asset treasury companies, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and crypto exchanges collectively hold more than 4 million BTC, nearly 20% of the total Bitcoin supply.
However, Seamus Rocca, CEO of crypto-friendly bank Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph that the four-year cycle is still in play as investors currently view BTC as a risk-on asset despite its store of value properties.
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