Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at capital management firm Bitwise, said he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s (BTC) outlook through 2026, but said an explosive rally could be coming.
According to the executive department, As the market matures and the asset becomes institutionally adopted, Bitcoin’s volatility will decrease.indicating changes in the dynamics of price movements.
In this regard, he said, “I believe that the four-year cycle is being replaced by a ‘decade of continuous progress.’ This means that there are massive new forces in the world.”
In that sense, he explained as follows: “(These forces) started arriving with the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024. They accelerated with regulatory developments in January of this year. There is growth in stablecoins and tokenization. I think these forces are bigger and stronger than the forces that have historically caused four-year cycles.”
As reported by CriptoNoticias; Halving and 4-year cycle are historic BTC catalysts.
However, Hogan suggests that these drivers are losing their dominance as Bitcoin enters a more mature consolidation phase. Against stronger structural factorsinstitutional implementation, advanced regulation, expansion of financial ecosystem based on digital assets, etc.
This could lead to more sustainable and less volatile growth, changing investor perceptions and perspectives. These are related to the currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Reduced volatility
Hogan elaborated on this by saying that BTC’s volatility has gone down, saying, “We’re seeing volatility go down. Over the last year, BTC’s volatility has been lower than Nvidia’s. That’s a remarkable development. I think we’re seeing this distribution from retailers to institutions happening. Harvard is buying, retailers are selling.”
The following graph shows the evolution of BTC price and Nvidia stock price (blue line) over the past 12 months.
From a Bitwise perspective, he added: The pace was just starting to pick up..
“I don’t think the crypto world is used to how slowly these institutions move,” he said in an interview with the CNBC television network. “To name two, the ‘big four’ banks (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, UBS) just approved BTC products, even though ETFs have been around for quite some time. We’re just opening the door.”
Finally, Mr. Hogan highlighted the influence of the regulatory environment on the perception of BTC.
Regarding BTC, I think there was a unique influence from the Trump administration. The impact was simple. If you ask institutional investors why they haven’t invested in BTC in the past, the main reason is regulatory concerns, not volatility or valuation.
He also asserted that the new administration and new regulatory environment have made the outlook clearer, making BTC a safe asset for institutional investors. “The regulatory realm is now clear and the biggest impact will spill over to other digital assets.”
