In crypto events, talk of quantum computers no longer sounds like science fiction. At a recent developer gathering, ETH Denver engineers and security researchers focused on a simple but unsettling question. The question is, what will happen to Bitcoin when powerful quantum machines come online?
Reports have revealed that new proposals have been incorporated into the network improvement process, laying the initial foundations for defense before a real crisis occurs.
Quantum Computing: Why Hashing Isn’t the Main Fear
Hashes, which are used by miners and many parts of the system, are only slightly faster using quantum tricks. According to Lov Grover’s research, quantum search techniques improve the square root speed and change the safety margin, but cannot eliminate it completely.
In layman’s terms, the current model requires large machines that are probably impractical to crack hashes at scale.
Signatures face real risks
The bigger concern, according to reports, is the signatures. “Our concern over the next five years is signatures, and that applies to Mr. Scholl as well,” BIP 360 co-author Hunter Beest said at a gathering at ETH Denver.
The mathematics behind most wallets today relies on elliptic curves, and Peter Scholl has shown how quantum machines can reverse that mathematics.
In this way, the public key reveals the private key if the appropriate hardware is present. A blockchain security company is tracking the addresses where public keys have already been published, and the number is no small number.
Blockchain cybersecurity firm Project Eleven’s list flags millions of coins that could be at risk if an attacker had a large enough quantum device.
How close is it?
Estimates are moving. Older papers placed the required resources in millions of qubits. Recent research by groups such as Iceberg Quantum suggests that this number could be even lower, perhaps into the six-digit range.
Still, the raw qubit count is only part of the story. What matters is how many “logical” qubits can be run with an acceptable error rate, how long the computation takes, and whether the machine can remain stable during that time.
Lab steps by large companies are also important. For example, Google reported progress on error fixing that many people found encouraging. That doesn’t mean a break-in is imminent, but it does change the risk model.
Current state of the industry
The report notes that teams are being formed to study and build defenses. The Ethereum Foundation has a post-quantum group, where major exchanges and companies participate in discussions.
Coinbase has advisors in place, and CEO Brian Armstrong said the issue can be addressed with planning. It’s “solvable,” he said.
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