Bitcoin price is up 3.43% today, trading around $70,776, as the easing of geopolitical tensions gives buyers enough cover to push the price back above $70,000. The macro context changed meaningfully overnight.
Oil prices had soared to nearly $120 per barrel due to concerns about prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East, but plummeted to around $93 per barrel after President Trump said the Iran conflict would soon end. Alternatively, Bitcoin has traded closely with a broader range of risk assets throughout this economic downturn, but the easing in energy markets removes one of the major headwinds that weighed on prices until early March.
30 minute chart: rising channel breaks above key SAR level
$BTC 30 minutes price movement (Source: TradingView)
The 30-minute chart shows Bitcoin forming a clean ascending channel from its March 9 lows around $65,800, with the price breaking above the parabolic SAR at $69,456 and the key horizontal resistance at $69,500 that had capped multiple attempts over the past week. Chaikin Money Flow remains in positive territory at 0.11, confirming that buying pressure rather than small fluctuations is supporting this move.
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The price is currently edging towards the upper end of the ascending channel around $72,000 to $73,000. If CMF remains above zero and cleanly breaks above that zone, it will clear the way to the next key resistance level, the 50-day EMA on the daily chart at $73,165.
Main level:
- SAR support: $69,456
- Channel floor: ~$68,500 up
- Immediate resistance: $71,000
- Channel cap: ~$72,000 – $73,000
- 50-day EMA target: $73,165
Daily chart: Bull market support band remains a long-term battleground
$BTC Daily price movement (Source: TradingView)
The daily chart shows the prospects for recovery. Bitcoin peaked at nearly $126,000 in October 2025 and has since given up more than 40% of its value, with price spending in the past few weeks compressed within the demand zone between $60,000 and $65,000. The bullish support band is located well above the current price at $84,738 to $86,705, and its retrieval would be the first real signal that the long-term trend is reversing.
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The more immediate challenge is clearing the 20-day EMA at $68,721, which the price is currently trading above on an intraday basis. A daily close above that level and a subsequent 50-day test of $73,165 would represent the most meaningful technical advance. $BTC This has been going on since the November breakdown started.
ETF flows are back with BlackRock leading the way
The US Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded net inflows of $167.03 million on March 9th, ending a streak of heavy outflows that included $348.83 million on March 6th and $227.83 million on March 5th. BlackRock’s IBIT hit $109.31 million in a single day, confirming that institutional demand is returning at current price levels rather than waiting for further downside.
Cumulative net inflows across all US Bitcoin spot ETFs now stand at $55.54 billion, with total net assets of $88.34 billion, representing 6.41% of Bitcoin market capitalization. The return to positive daily flows after a brutal week of outflows is a meaningful change in institutional sentiment that cannot be captured by charts alone.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise?
- Bullish case: $BTC It sustains above the SAR level of $69,456, clears the top of the ascending channel between $72,000 and $73,000, and closes the daily candle above the 50-day EMA at $73,165. Continued ETF inflows and further de-escalation of the Iran conflict will strengthen the move towards the $80,000-$84,000 zone.
- Bearish Case: If rejected between $71,000 and $72,000, the price will fall below the $69,456 SAR and retest the $65,000 to $60,000 demand zone. If oil prices return to $120 due to a re-escalation of the Iran conflict, the macro headwinds that have weighed on risk assets throughout this correction period will return.
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