Bitcoin is maintaining a tight integration range with reduced price action as traders await tonight’s FOMC decision. A surprising speed reduction can serve as a major catalyst and potentially cause a sudden, upward breakout.
Technical Analysis
Shayan Market
Daily Charts
BTC continues to trade within a tight range, showing modest market activity and low volatility. The asset remains locked between the $116,000 and $123,000 levels, reflecting the temporary balance between buyers and sellers. This lateral movement indicates market indecisiveness ahead of the major macrocatalysts.
The $114,000 level along the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s multi-month ascending channel serves as important support. As long as this trendline applies, the bullish structure will remain intact and we expect a retest of $123,000 resistance. However, if this level is compromised, a deeper fix to the $111,000 support zone is a more likely scenario.
4-hour chart
In the lower time frame, the lack of direction for Bitcoin becomes more pronounced. The assets continue to consolidate within the bullish continuation flag pattern, a classic indication of temporary revisions during the uptrend.
All eyes are scheduled for the FOMC meeting tonight. Political tensions and increasing pressure from President Trump have increased the likelihood of a surprising decision as they seek aggressive rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve announces unexpected rate cuts, Bitcoin could respond with a sharp rally, escape from its current range and aim for a new all-time high.
Until then, the market could remain muted as traders wait for confirmation from the development of macroeconomic policy.
On-Chain Analysis
Shayan Market
Over the past few months, the BTC has experienced a period of significant futures market activity, particularly during gatherings that are approaching the $70,000-$90,000 level. These runs coincided with the heating and overheating stages, as indicated by the dense red clusters that historically resulted in correction or integration.
However, the latest market behavior draws a different picture. Despite the close to $123,000 in Bitcoin trading, the bubble map shows a transition back to neutral and cooling stages (grey and green bubbles), suggesting a decline in speculative pressure in the futures market. This cooling highlights leverage and reset of risk-free behavior between traders despite rising prices.
From a chain perspective, such market cooling after overheating is often a healthy signal, indicating that prices are supported by organic demand rather than excessive leverage. While Bitcoin has risen above $10,000, futures volumes show signs of normalization strengthening bullish outlook as it avoids the pitfalls of overheated speculation in the market.
If the current trend of low speculative pressure persists, BTC could have potentially aggressively impulsive legs towards a new history high that is potentially above 123K.
