After rejecting the $89,000 resistance zone for the third time this month, Bitcoin price is trading around $88,200 today. The move follows a sharp rebound in the dollar and continued gains in gold, which topped $5,500 an ounce earlier this week. $BTC While metals and stocks are near all-time highs, they are still about 30 percent below their October peaks.
Dollar rebound and gold rally cast a shadow on cryptocurrencies
The macro environment is unfavorable for risk assets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday reaffirmed his administration’s policy of strengthening the dollar, sparking the dollar index’s biggest single-session rally since November.
The move came after the Federal Reserve showed patience by holding interest rates steady and refraining from further rate cuts. The combination of a strong dollar and record gold prices has drawn capital to traditional safe havens, sidelining Bitcoin.
Analysts note: $BTC It continues to trade like a high beta risk asset rather than a macro hedge. While gold soared 15% and silver 30% during the dollar’s decline earlier this month, Bitcoin failed to meaningfully participate in that rotation.
Distribution pattern confirmed by spot runoff
$BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
Foreign exchange flow data reinforces our cautious view. Coinglass recorded net outflows of $80.24 million on January 29, continuing a pattern of steady distributions that lasted throughout January.
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If spot flows turn negative during consolidation, it usually indicates that holders are reducing exposure rather than accumulating it. The lack of inflows despite the price stabilizing around $88,000 suggests that buyers remain hesitant to intervene ahead of major resistance levels.
EMA cluster caps upside as structure weakens
$BTC Price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading below all major exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA is $90,073, the 50-day EMA is $91,134, the 100-day EMA is $94,550, and the 200-day EMA is $98,327. This accumulation of resistance has created a ceiling that buyers have not been able to break through since early January.
The Supertrend indicator remains bearish at $94,850, confirming the broader downtrend. Price action shows repeated rejection near the $89,000 level, with round resistance coinciding with the 50-day moving average zone.
The uptrend line from December lows around $85,000 is providing support through January. That structure remains intact, but the range between trendline support and EMA resistance has narrowed, indicating a resolution in the coming sessions.
Struggling to build momentum during the day
$BTC Price Action (Source: TradingView)
On the 30-minute chart, Bitcoin is trading around the session VWAP of $88,228 after falling from the upper band at $88,601. The RSI fell to 40.48, reflecting a loss of momentum after an early session attempt above $89,000.
The lower end of the VWAP band at $87,855 represents immediate support. Below this level, the uptrend line near $87,500 will be exposed and the bulls will need to defend to maintain the short-term structure.
Intraday price action has been lower since the January 28 peak of $90,000, confirming that sellers are controlling the short-term direction until buyers can confidently reclaim the $89,000 zone.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise?
While the price remains below the EMA cluster, the trend remains bearish, but the uptrend line prevents the structure from turning into a full breakdown.
- Bullish case: A close of the day above $90,073 would turn the 20-day EMA into support, marking the first step toward resuming the broader trend. This move will open the way to $94,500 and the 100-day EMA.
- Bearish case: A loss of the uptrend line near $87,500 would invalidate the consolidation structure and expose the $85,000 demand zone. Below this level, the target is $82,000.
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