After two days of steady recovery from the March 9 lows near $1,920, Ethereum price is trading around $2,030 today, up 0.31%, as buyers hold the midline of the Bollinger Bands at $2,029 on the 4-hour chart.
4-hour chart: OBV confirms buying pressure if trend line holds
$ETH 4-hour price movement (Source: TradingView)
The 4-hour chart shows Ethereum maintaining an uptrend line from its February lows around $1,750, with the price currently approaching the BB midline at $2,029 and the upper band at $2,084. OBV tends to rise every time the price recovers, and it can be seen that during the rising phase, volume is flowing in rather than flowing out of the market. The positive divergence between OBV and price in the recent range suggests accumulation rather than distribution.
The $2,200 horizontal resistance zone visible on the 4-hour chart has rejected the price three times since February. A clean break above the $2,084 Bollinger Band would be the first step to retesting that level. Below, the lower BB at $1,973 and the uptrend line near $1,900 define the support structure.
Main level:
- Uptrend line support: ~$1,900 rise
- Lower BB support: $1,973
- BB midline: $2,029
- BB resistance limit: $2,084
- Key Resistance Zone: $2,200
Hourly chart: rising wedge with SAR overhead
$ETH 1 hour price movement (Source: TradingView)
The hourly chart shows an ascending wedge forming from the March 9th low, with the price pushing towards the parabolic SAR of $2,077, which is currently above resistance. The Chande Momentum Oscillator read -66.40, which is significantly negative and is positioned near levels that have historically preceded short-term rebounds rather than further acceleration.
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The price is compressed between the lower support near $2,010 and the wedge border with SAR resistance at $2,077. If SAR flips to support, it would be a short-term signal of a change in momentum and target the $2,084 BB upper band on the 4-hour chart as the next meaningful resistance.
Main 1 hour level:
- Wedge lower support: ~$2,010
- SAR resistance: $2,077
- SAR reversal target: $2,084 to $2,100
Derivatives: OI rises as short covering
$ETH Derivatives analysis (Source: Coinglass)
Open interest increased by 2.36% to $27.28 billion and volume decreased by 11.76% to $45.18 billion, a combination that suggests new positions are being built at current levels rather than increased trading activity. Binance’s long/short ratio is 1.8662 for accounts, 2.0479 for top trader accounts, and 1.1887 for top trader positions, with both retail and institutional accounts leaning long, but the size of institutional investors remains conservative.
Liquidation data tells an important story. Over the course of 24 hours, the shorts absorbed $24 million versus the longs’ $19.28 million, confirming that the short side remains under pressure as the price remains above $2,000. Options open interest increased by 1.13% to $7.41 billion, but option trading volume decreased by 37.09% to $777.98 million, reflecting stable hedging demand without panic option buying that would signal real fear in the market.
All nine funds record zero outflows, and ETF inflows recover
The US Ethereum Spot ETF recorded net inflows of $57.01 million on March 11, with all nine ETFs reporting no outflows during the session. BlackRock’s ETHA topped the list with $18.8 million, followed by Grayscale’s ETHA. $ETH $19.08 million, Fidelity’s FETH $19.13 million. Currently, the cumulative net inflow is $11.65 billion, and the total net assets are $11.85 billion, accounting for 4.75% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization.
The consecutive days of positive flows after consecutive heavy outflows in early March, including outflows of $90.94 million on March 5th and $82.85 million on March 6th, indicate a meaningful change in institutional sentiment. Two consecutive days where all ETFs avoided outflows is not noise. This suggests that the institutional foundations are stabilizing at current price levels, adding a demand floor below the technical structure that is not fully reflected on the chart alone.
Outlook: Will Ethereum Rise?
- Bullish case: $ETH It maintains the uptrend line and BB midline at $2,029, reverses the 1-hour SAR to support at $2,077, and breaks the upper Bollinger Band at $2,084 on the 4-hour chart. If all nine funds continue to see inflows into the ETF and zero outflows, it will strengthen the move towards the $2,200 resistance zone.
- Bearish Case: SAR and rejection at the upper BB sends the price below the midline at $2,029 and towards the lower BB at $1,973. A break out of the uptrend line near $1,950 to $1,900 would erase the recovery structure and expose the lows from February in the $1,800 to $1,750 range.
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