ETH compression will become even more serious as futures trading expands and discussion on fees rises

Ethereum is trading near a key decision point as the market enters a period of tense consolidation. The asset has risen above short-term support near $3,135 after recovering from a late November low of $2,625.

Broader trends continue to show pressure. However, the structure is starting to stabilize as buyers defend the $3,050 to $3,070 area.

As a result, traders are now focused on a confirmed breakout or breakout, as the next move could determine the direction for early 2026. Additionally, improved derivatives activity and new discussions about fee protection tools have further increased interest in Ethereum’s near-term outlook.

Price band narrows as key levels hold

ETH is trading in a narrow range between the support line at $3,050 and the resistance line at $3,180. The lower zone contains the 20-day and 50-day averages, reinforcing that cluster. A break below this region could reopen the path to $3,004 and $2,914.

Losing these levels could send the price back to $2,625. However, buyers continued to defend the range, indicating an attempt to build higher lows.

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The upside level remains clear. ETH needs to recover between $3,143 and $3,180 to gain short-term momentum. A close above $3,250 could indicate improving trend strength. Higher targets are near $3,443 and $3,636. Importantly, if momentum expands, the next major zones will emerge around $3,910 and $4,260.

Strengthening market participation through derivatives activities

Open interest in Ethereum futures shows that trader engagement is increasing. It increased through the second half of this year and reached approximately $36.7 billion on December 8th.

This rally has developed as prices have recovered, suggesting that traders increased their exposure during the rally. Additionally, open interest has remained strong even during short-term declines, indicating confidence in Ethereum’s broad positions.

Spot flow tells a different story. Red runoff spikes were dominant and had a strong distribution from August to November. However, recently an influx has started to be seen. ETH recorded an inflow of $26.66 million on December 8th. This change suggests that some buyers may return as the price remains above $3,100.

Buterin highlights new approach to fee stability

Vitalik Buterin discussed the potential of on-chain gas futures systems. He claimed that users can lock in future rates within a certain time frame. Therefore, high-volume users can make more reliable plans.

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Additionally, such markets may provide a clearer signal about the expected base rate. This idea adds a new layer to Ethereum’s evolving roadmap and could impact long-term demand.

Technical outlook for Ethereum price

Ethereum is trading within a narrow range around the $3,100 zone, so key levels remain well-defined. Upside levels include $3,143, $3,180, and $3,250 as the first group of hurdles. As momentum builds, a breakout above $3,250 could extend to $3,443 and $3,636.

Downside levels include $3,073 and $3,050, which form trend-defining support. A deeper decline could see $3,004 and $2,914. Losing this band risks a return to the cycle low of $2,625. The 100-day and 200-day EMA are still above the price and serve as upper resistance limits for medium-term trend strength.

Looking at the technical picture, it shows a clear compression between the support at $3,050 and the resistance at $3,180. The squeeze is now getting even tighter as traders wait for a decisive move. Breaking out of this structure completely could lead to a significant increase in volatility in either direction.

Will Ethereum rise further?

Ethereum’s next move will depend on how long buyers defend the $3,050 to $3,073 demand zone. A strong defense sets the stage for a push towards the $3,180 wall. A sustained rise above this will pave the way to $3,250 and even $3,443. If flows improve, ETH could attempt a retest of $3,636.

However, if you fail to keep $3,050, you will have $3,004 and $2,914 back in play. A break above these levels weakens the structure and exposes the previous low of $2,625. For now, Ethereum is in a pivotal space. Traders expect volatility to rise as compression tightens and both sides vie for control.

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