Ethereum (ETH) whales offset significant transfers — yet $1,800 zone remains at risk

Ethereum price is under new pressure after a major on-chain event shook the market. From March 6th, $ETH It’s down nearly 8%, although it’s only down about 1.4% in the past 24 hours.

Low after $157 million $ETH Transfer by Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilke, possibly for a dump. However, more detailed on-chain data suggests that some whale populations may actually be trying to absorb selling pressure.

Co-founder’s $157 million transfer could be misinterpreted as whale selling

Ethereum’s recent weakness began when Jeffrey Wilk, one of the network’s co-founders, moved $79,176. $ETH to the Kraken exchange, worth about $157 million at current prices. Large transfers to exchanges often indicate potential selling activity and can have a big impact on sentiment. Shortly after this migration appeared, standard whale indicators also showed large-scale whale declines. $ETH Collection.

Data tracking the supply of Ethereum held by off-exchange whales has decreased by about 80,000 $ETHwhich is approximately the same size as Wilke’s transfer. This is an important detail.

Because whale metrics group together many large wallets, the movement of a single very large wallet can appear as a broad whale sell. In this case, 80,000 $ETH This decline is roughly in line with Wilke’s deposits, suggesting the co-founder’s transfer may be reflected in these whale metrics.

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The sale of the whales probably reflects the transfer of Mr. Wilke: Santimento

In other words, what initially appeared to be a widespread distribution of whales may simply be one large founder-level transfer that appeared within the aggregate data. This is why it will be important to analyze whale cohorts more deeply.

Whale populations are actually increasing

When we look more closely at the whale data using balanced cohort metrics, the story is very different. Two major Ethereum whale populations have increased their holdings over the same period.

The first group consists of wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million. $ETH. This cohort started accumulating on March 5th, increasing supply from 6.28 million people. $ETH Up to approximately 6.4 million people $ETH.

This corresponds to an increase of approximately 120,000 people. $ETHworth approximately $234 million at current prices.

Another cohort: wallets holding 100,000 to 1 million $ETHaccumulation also began shortly thereafter. Since March 6, their holdings have increased from 11.48 million. $ETH Up to approximately 11.57 million people $ETHThat means nearly 90,000 have been added. $ETHworth approximately $175 million.

This build-up suggests that some large investors may have stepped in to absorb supply flowing into the market, offsetting some of the selling pressure. It also explains why broader indicators for whales initially appeared bearish, even though specific whale groups were actually increasing their exposure.

Contradictory movements of momentum signals and rising channel flags

Even before the co-founder’s move was revealed, Ethereum’s charts were already flashing red flags. On the 8 hour chart, $ETH A hidden bearish divergence formed between February 14th and March 6th. During this period, Ethereum price formed lower highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, formed higher highs.

Hidden bearish divergences typically appear during downtrends and often indicate that selling pressure is still present despite a temporary pullback. Immediately after the signal appeared, Ethereum weakened, further triggering the co-founder’s potential transfer, and ended up dropping nearly 8%.

RSI Divergence: TradingView

at the same time, $ETH has been trading within an ascending channel since February 24, indicating that buyers are still trying to build a short-term bullish structure. This channel may also explain why certain whale populations continued to accumulate.

However, that bullish structure is currently under pressure. If Ethereum breaks below the lower bound of the ascending channel, the bearish momentum indicated by the RSI divergence could accelerate. But whales aren’t the only optimistic group.

Long-term holders continue to accumulate as $1,800 Ethereum price risk emerges

Despite recent selling pressure, long-term Ethereum holders continue to accumulate $ETH. Glassnode data shows changes in holdernet positions over a 30-day period that tracks wallet holdings. $ETH It has been steadily rising for over 155 days.

As of February 24, long-term holders had accumulated approximately 9,454 shares. $ETH. Since then, that number has risen sharply. As of this writing, the metrics have increased to approximately 442,646. $ETHindicating continued confidence from long-term investors. That’s an increase of more than 4,500% in less than two weeks.

Hodlers keep buying: Glassnode

Interestingly, this accumulation trend began around the same time as Ethereum entered a short-term uptrend channel (which began developing on February 24th), suggesting that these holders may still believe the broader structure remains intact. However, this optimism comes with risks.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum needs to recover $2,050, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. An 8-hour close clearly above $2,050 could pave the way to $2,180.

On the downside, major support lies near $1,910. If Ethereum falls below this level, it will confirm the collapse of the ascending channel. This kind of movement is $ETH Towards $1,830 (psychological $1,800 zone)

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, the Ethereum market sits between two opposing forces. Founder selling and technical weakness are adding to downward pressure, while whale accumulation and long-term holder conviction continue to provide support. Whether or not $ETH Whether it holds above the channel or slides towards the $1,800 zone could determine the next stage of the market.

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