Ethereum has surged towards the $2,300 level, causing short-term excitement among traders. Price increases look promising on the surface, but they follow the familiar pattern of unsustainable momentum.
Continued weakness among major investor groups threatens to reverse previous recent gains. $ETH A durable breakout above the critical resistance level can be established.
Ethereum holders are selling
$ETH HODL Caves data reveals that holders of less than one month have recorded returns of approximately three times their initial investment. While this return seems significant, it represents the lowest return multiple across all holder cohorts. Relatively modest gains put psychological pressure on short-term holders who are pondering whether to exit or hold on to their positions.
Short-term holders have historically been the most reactive segment of the Ethereum investor base. They tend to sell quickly at the first sign of earnings pressure, which can be a destabilizing factor during periods of market uncertainty. This cohort has the lowest relative returns, so it remains likely that profit-driven selling activity will intensify in the near term.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Ethereum HODL Cave. Source: Glassnode
HODL Waves data confirms that sales from younger holders have already begun. 1 week to 1 month wallet cohorts represent a higher percentage of the total $ETH Supply fell from 6.9% to 5.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points. This decline represents an important change in the distribution of supply among recent purchasers.
Importantly, this supply has not matured to a 1-3 month cohort, confirming that the tokens were sold without being held. Whether motivated by profit taking or loss mitigation, this withdrawal of supply from the market puts further downward pressure on Ethereum’s price trajectory, which is at a technically delicate crossroads.
Ethereum HODL Wave. Source: Glassnode
$ETH prices may fall
Ethereum price is trading at $2,326, below the $2,348 resistance level. Given the deterioration of holder behavior and HODL Waves data, the likelihood of a complete breach exceeding that cap is decreasing. The technical setup increasingly favors a pullback rather than a continuation of the recent rally.
Bearish pressure from short-term holders selling may persist $ETH A move back towards $2,158 and further decline risks a drop below $2,000 to retest the support at $1,917.
$ETH price analysis. “>
$ETH Price analysis. Source: TradingView
This is because MFI is also located in the overbought zone, crossing the 80.0 threshold. Historically, buying pressure after crossing the neutral mark tends to drive prices higher, and once prices fall they eventually crash. $ETH It’s oversold. This seems like the next one $ETH.
$ETH MFI. Source: TradingView
The outlook could change completely if broader market conditions improve and $2,348 becomes support. If this scenario materializes, it will open the way to the resistance levels at $2,500 and $2,614, completely invalidating the bearish theory.
The post Ethereum price will next drop to $2,000 as history repeats itself after crossing this threshold appeared first on BeInCrypto.
