Ethereum price is back in the spotlight after a new lifetime record quietly emerged in the derivatives market. On the surface, this development may look like an increase in trader confidence. However, when combined with Ethereum’s recent price structure and momentum signals, the situation becomes less bullish.
Several indicators are currently pointing to weakness that could determine whether Ethereum price stabilizes here or re-opens its path to $1,800.
Record leverage ratios indicate intensification of speculation
Ethereum’s price is currently trading in one of the most speculative derivatives environments in its recent history.
According to CryptoQuant data, the exchange-wide estimated leverage ratio has risen to around 0.78, the highest level ever. This ratio reached a similar level in early March and set a new record again on March 11, confirming that speculative positions continue to be built.
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$ETH Record: CryptoQuant
This indicator compares the open interest of derivatives with the amount traded. $ETH Held as an exchange. An increase in this ratio means that traders are relying more and more on borrowed capital to make directional bets. This indicator for BTC is starting to turn downward, suggesting a possible transition from Bitcoin to altcoins.
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leverage ratio $ATH: CryptoQuant
This surge in leverage is supported by a rapid expansion in open interest. Ethereum’s open interest increased from approximately $9.4 billion on March 9th to approximately $10.21 billion by March 12th, an increase of approximately 8.6% in just three days.
When the open interest ratio and leverage ratio rise at the same time, it usually indicates that new leveraged positions are entering the market rather than simply replacing old trades. However, even though it looks bullish at first, this is where the bearish side appears.
Funding ratio is another clue to how traders are positioning themselves.
Open Interest: Santimento
Earlier this week, Ethereum funding fell to -0.017%, leading to heavy short positions. However, even as open interest continued to rise, funding rates recovered towards -0.004%.
This shift suggests short selling pressure is easing while new long positions enter the market, increasing overall volatility risk if price momentum does not continue.
Rising long positions are consistent with bearish structure
The positioning of derivatives appears to be directly reflected in Ethereum’s price structure. On the daily chart, Ethereum price has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder currently developing.
One of the unusual features of this pattern is the upward sloping neckline. Upward necklines typically form when buyers intervene repeatedly during a pullback, pushing each support level slightly above the previous support level. This behavior is consistent with derivative signals.
Bearish Pattern: TradingView
Buyers appear to be more willing to intervene on the downside as funding rates recover and long positions increase. This buying pressure helps explain why the neckline of the head-and-shoulders structure continues to slope upward instead of forming a flat support level. However, this also creates a weak structure.
Since the neckline is rising, the exact breakdown level may change depending on where price meets the trendline. This makes the timing of a breakdown difficult to predict, even if the broad bearish pattern remains intact. And longs are now on the inside of a bearish pattern, increasing the risk of downside compression.
Suggestion of divergence $ETH Price momentum is weakening
Momentum indicators also show early warning signals.
Between the left and right shoulders of the pattern, Ethereum price has formed lower highs, indicating that the recent rally did not match the strength of the previous peak. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator of momentum, hit even higher highs during the same period.
This combination forms a hidden bearish divergence, which typically indicates that the overall trend remains weak despite a temporary pullback. Divergence enhances the configuration of derivatives.
Ethereum RSI: TradingView
While leverage and open interest are rising rapidly, Ethereum price itself is struggling to build stronger highs. This discrepancy suggests that the market may be relying more on speculative positioning than true spot demand.
Ethereum price has already fallen about 4% in the past 30 days, highlighting that the broader trend remains under pressure. The RSI divergence also reinforces structural weaknesses and supports the risk of a pullback toward the neckline.
Ethereum price levels indicate the $1,800 zone could gain traction again
Head-and-shoulder construction highlights important support zones. Because the neckline slopes upward, the breakdown level does not remain fixed but changes over time. The neckline is currently within a range of movement between $1,970 and $1,940.
If Ethereum price breaks out of this zone, a bearish structure could be activated.
The predicted move from the pattern suggests a decline of around 15% from the neckline level. A fully measured target from the neckline points near $1,680, but if the support fails, the $1,800 level becomes the first major downside objective. However, you can override the bearish setup.
of $ETH For the pattern to start weakening, the price needs to cross the right shoulder resistance at $2,080.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
A strong breakout above $2,200 would completely negate the head-and-shoulders formation and signal the return of bullish momentum.
Until that happens, the combination of record leverage, rising open interest, hidden RSI divergence, and bearish patterns suggest that Ethereum price may remain vulnerable to further severe corrections.
The post Ethereum’s new lifetime record has bearish overtones, puts $1,800 back into focus was first published on BeInCrypto.
