Cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant has published a remarkable on-chain analysis of Bitcoin’s current price structure.
The company said key cost levels that have distinguished bull markets from bear markets in all past cycles have been lost.
According to CryptoQuant, the average cost level for the “moderate” investor group, i.e. those holding between $10 and $10,000, is $BTC Having a coin move within the past 1-3 months has historically been a determining criterion for market structure. These investors are active enough and have the scale to influence the market, so they reflect sentiment.
The current price for this group is approximately $89,822. On the other hand, Bitcoin has not been able to exceed this level since mid-January 2026.
The company cited the 2021 bull market and said this level is significant. When Bitcoin reached an all-time high (ATH) of approximately $67,551 in November 2021, the average cost for this group of investors was approximately $33,700.
During the mid-cycle correction, prices never fell below this cost level. This kept market sentiment positive. However, a bear market was officially confirmed in June 2022 when Bitcoin fell to around $18,945, roughly 30% below the cost of this group.
According to CryptoQuant, the current cycle unfolds differently. For the same group of investors, the price rose to $94,000 by the end of 2025. However, Bitcoin price fell below this level in mid-December 2025 and was unable to recover.
As of today, $BTC It trades for approximately $66,424. This equates to a price that is approximately 26% below the average cost for an active, medium-sized investor.
Our analysis shows that this group’s continued losses have historically been the driving force behind long bear markets. Comparisons with the 2021 revision are said to have overlooked this significant difference. At the time, this group of investors was not in the loss zone. But today, they are losing money significantly.
CryptoQuant argues that Bitcoin needs to recover and maintain a position above the $89,800 level for the on-chain structure to regain any semblance of health.
*This is not investment advice.
