For Bitcoin responded as expected The conflict between the United States and Iran continues a pattern that has always emerged during previous geopolitical escalations. Cryptocurrency prices are digesting the latest developments, with analysts comparing the current price structure to similar periods in 2022 and 2023, when Bitcoin first sold off before making a strong recovery.
War Headlines and 20%-40% Upward Pattern
Recent geopolitical tensions are comes at an already vulnerable time For the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is already down 48% from its all-time high and is on track to close on a red candlestick for the fifth consecutive month. Major cryptocurrencies also suffered the worst start to the year in the first two months, dropping 24% since January. February’s closing price was 14.8% lower than its opening price, making it the third worst February in Bitcoin history. The only times when February was weak were in 2025, when Bitcoin’s closing price was 17.5% below its opening price, and in 2014, when its monthly closing price was 33% below its opening price.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows Shared weekly chart It depicts how Bitcoin behaved during past diplomatic escalations. After Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin fell, but rose by about 40% in the months that followed. In June 2025, after Israel attacked Iran, Bitcoin initially sold off again, but has since recovered around 25%.
Now, following the US attack on Iran on Saturday, Bitcoin has once again reacted to the downside. The question Pillows raises is whether the same post-shock recovery pattern will play out again.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TedPillows On X
Another analyst, Sherlock, focused on short-term responses. He noted that past attacks on Iran by the US and Israel have typically seen Bitcoin plummet over the weekend and recover within 24 to 48 hours.
In April 2024, after Iran attacked Israel, Bitcoin fell 8% overnight and recovered within two days. In October 2024, the 3% drop was reversed within 24 hours.
It fell 6% in June 2025 due to the US strike, but recovered by Sunday, but then rose 62% in the next two months, hitting a new all-time high in October. Interestingly, in both cases the initial decline occurred before traditional financial markets reopened.
The market has already undergone a major correction
It is important to note that the current setup is different from previous episodes, as Bitcoin was already in a strong uptrend during the 2025 geopolitical shock. Today’s market structure looks very different. Bitcoin is in a prolonged drawdown For 5 months.
Bitcoin weekly RSI is currently This is the lowest level ever. fear and greed index Extreme fear for 22 days straight. Furthermore, leveraged positions have decreased significantly; Open interest on a low reading.
In previous instances, panic selling occurred following the geopolitical event itself. But this time, much of the forced sales and deleveraging appears to have taken place before the strike. Based on this warning, weak hands are largely terminated and overleverage has already been eliminated. Therefore, Bitcoin may not survive a prolonged decline due to tensions and may stabilize faster than previous episodes.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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