According to analyst Crypto Rover’s post on X, the US looks at an 83% chance of government shutdown as its funding deadline expires on September 30th.
The rising risks reflected in the broader forecasting model, flagging Rover’s post, reflecting the deadlock of budgetary councils. This is not just a salary issue. A long-term shutdown could ease the release of economic data that guides US reliability, tension market confidence, and monetary policy.
💥breaking:
The US government shutdown odds reached 83%, the highest level in 2025. pic.twitter.com/k4bvetpjm3
– Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) September 27, 2025
The meaning of 83% odds and why is it important?
An 83% chance indicates that many market participants treat shutdowns as manageable. In comparison, models and analysts have been locked down for a long time weekly shutdowns, with US production dropping by $7 billion. The CBS report shows economist Gregory Dako accurately estimates the figures, estimated $7 billion per week in direct drag.
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will continue as mandatory programs, but management processes such as benefits verification and new Medicare cards will continue when staff are cut.
Economic impact of shutdowns
The economic impact of the shutdown is clear. Oxford Economics estimates GDP of $7 billion per week if funds expire. Contractors will stop defense, infrastructure, and healthcare-wide work, procurement freezes and projects.
The market also loses clarity. The closure from October 1st could delay the October 3 employment report, the data the Federal Reserve uses to set fees.
Wideer outcomes in the work of the US federal government
The shutdown will stop training new air traffic controllers, freeze federal flood insurance programs needed for mortgages, suspend regulatory inspections, and businesses will rely on (Reuters). Each delay builds up into a bottleneck that lasts even after funds recover.
History shows risk. The United States has endured 14 closures since 1980. The longest closure lasted for 34 days from 2018 to 2019, forcing 800,000 workers from their salaries. These episodes emphasize reality. With each day of closure, economic and human costs increase.
Related: US government publishes GDP and economic data on blockchain
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